Canada: Persisting deficits in the provinces’ northern regions

22 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through July 2023 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in many regions.

In the east, areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, pockets of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, eastern Quebec into Labrador, between Montreal and Quebec City, and southeastern Ontario. Pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit are forecast in northwestern Ontario.

In the Prairie Provinces, deficits will be intense in central and northeastern Manitoba and near Winnipeg; central Saskatchewan; and central and northwestern Alberta. Surpluses are forecast in northwestern Saskatchewan reaching into Alberta. In British Colombia, widespread exceptional deficits are forecast in central and northern regions and pockets in the south near the U.S. border.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates many areas of intense deficit, including Newfoundland, from Quebec into Labrador, southeastern Ontario, central and northeastern Manitoba, central Saskatchewan, and much of the central and northern regions of Alberta and British Columbia. The southern regions of the Prairie Provinces can expect normal conditions overall with some deficits.

Surpluses will emerge in Ontario northeast of Lake Superior and will linger on the southern border of Manitoba reaching into the U.S.

From February through April, near-normal conditions will return to southern regions of the provinces. Many large areas of intense deficit will persist but deficits in the western half of the nation will downgrade somewhat.

The forecast for the final months – May through July – indicates that anomalies in the nation’s western half will shrink and downgrade considerably leaving near-normal conditions in many areas, particularly across the south.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A state of emergency that was declared last month in response to drought along British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast has been lifted. The alert was issued in response to the drought affecting the water system that supplies 90 percent of homes and businesses in the Sechelt area.

A statement from the Regional District of Sunshine Coast says levels in the watershed have risen slightly because of snowmelt with warmer-than-expected temperatures. Until soils in the watershed are fully recharged, the statement says, there is a risk that an extended period of cold and dry weather could threaten the water supply.

Grain farmers near Fort St. John are experiencing some of their poorest yields in years as a result of drought continuing to impact northeastern B.C. Historical weather data shows that the total precipitation in the area this October was 9.8 millimeters, a drop from 11.4 millimeters in October 2021 and 41.2 millimeters in October 2020. After digging down 15 feet, one farmer still noticed the soil was “bone-dry.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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