East Asia: Intense surplus forecast in Pearl River Basin

21 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through February 2023 indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in southern China throughout the Pearl River Basin (Zhujiang River) with exceptional anomalies dominating much of Guangxi. Surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for central Sichuan and the coastal southeast.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Yellow River Watershed (Huang He River) and North China Plain. Northeast China, too, can expect surpluses in a vast area from Liaoning past the Chinese border. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional through western regions of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia.

Widespread, exceptional deficits will reach from western Inner Mongolia across a vast belt in Xinjiang Uygur through the city of Hami and the Taklimakan Desert with pockets of transitional conditions (pink/purple) as well. In Tibet (Xizang), intense surpluses will dominate many areas in the western half of the region and will include exceptional anomalies along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

Moderate to severe deficits will be widespread across South Korea’s southern half and will span the DMZ. Deficits of similar intensity are forecast in Kyushu, Shikoku, and southern Honshu, Japan. In Mongolia, deficits will be extreme in the western Gobi Desert and exceptional in the lakes region in the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast from the Ider River region in the north to Lake Khovsgol.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates widespread surpluses from the Yangtze River south, particularly intense in the Pearl River Watershed. Surpluses are also forecast for Northeast China, the North China Plain, the Loess Plateau region of the Yellow River Watershed, east-central Qinghai, and western Tibet (Xizang). In southern China, anomalies will be exceptional throughout much of Guangxi, severe to exceptional in southern Yunnan, and severe in Guizhou and southern Hunan. Intense surpluses are forecast in western Tibet and along the Yarlung River. In western Inner Mongolia, moderate deficits are forecast but deficits will be more intense in large pockets across central Xinjiang.

On the Korean Peninsula, moderate to severe deficits are expected in South Korea and the DMZ. Similar anomalies are forecast for Shikoku and southern Honshu, Japan, and coastal pockets in Hokkaido. In Mongolia, surpluses are predicted from the Ider River region in the north to Lake Khovsgol. Some pockets of moderate deficit will trail from the western Gobi Desert to the Khovd River Basin in the northwest.

From September to November, anomalies will shrink considerably though widespread surpluses will persist in Northeast China, the Qilian Mountains in Qinghai, and central Tibet. Pockets of moderate surplus will linger in Shandong Province in the east and Guangxi in the south and will emerge in northern Taiwan. Moderate deficits will emerge in eastern Yunnan, central Sichuan, and North Korea, and deficits in southern Honshu will moderate.

The forecast for the final three months – December 2022 through February 2023 – indicates widespread deficits in China south of the Yangtze River and into the eastern provinces, and from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang. Deficits are also expected in Korea, southern Japan, and western Mongolia. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China, Qinghai, and central Tibet.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Torrential rainfall has caused flooding and landslides in several provinces in southern China but particularly Guangdong where nearly half a million people have been affected and damages total $250 million. From the beginning of May through mid-June, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian have recorded the highest precipitation figures in 60 years. Guangzhou, a southern megacity of over 15 million people in Guangdong, got hit with a rare triple threat - record rainfall plus a heatwave and a tornado. The tornado cut off power to 5,400 consumers and flooding inundated farmland in the region. At least 32 people have died in southern China’s flooding.

On the Korean Peninsula, however, drought is taking a toll. In South Korea, cumulative rainfall for the year is half the average and the lowest since record-keeping began nearly 50 years ago. Farmers are concerned as reservoirs dry up and spring temperatures reach all-time highs. Vegetable prices have soared in affected regions and industrial operations are threatened as needed water supplies shrink. Critics are questioning whether many popular summer festivals that feature significant water use in entertainment should be scheduled.

North Korea, already suffering drought and worker shortages due to the covid 19 pandemic, is currently in the middle of a gastrointestinal disease outbreak, likely a waterborne illness such as cholera or typhoid, in South Hwanghae Province, a key agricultural area, further complicating food production.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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