Europe: Widespread water deficits forecast

17 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Anomalies will be particularly widespread in France and Portugal and will include exceptional deficits along parts of the Middle Loire River and the Vienne River region, a tributary of the Loire, and in Marseille and pockets of Portugal, notably the Lower Tagus River into Lisbon. Deficits are forecast in many regions of western and northern Spain, intense in the west. Exceptional surpluses are expected on the Mediterranean Coast in the Valencia region.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for many regions of northern Italy and along its Tyrrhenian Coast where anomalies will be exceptional. Deficits will be severe to extreme on the Po River. A pocket of surplus is expected from eastern Umbria to the Adriatic Coast. Deficits of varying intensity and extent are predicted in Central and Eastern Europe and pockets in the Balkans. Anomalies will be especially widespread in Belgium, Netherlands, Czech Republic, and Hungary, and will be severe in southwestern Ukraine.

Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Scottish Highlands, but surpluses will be more intense in eastern Denmark, a pocket on the north-central border of Romania, and Ukraine’s northern tip. In Northern Europe and European Russia, areas with a forecast of surplus include central Iceland; Arctic Norway; southern Norbotten, Sweden; Helsinki, Finland; and Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland, and Svernaya Dvina, Desna, and Volga River Watersheds in Russia.

Exceptional water deficits are forecast in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, downgrading somewhat as they extend south and across the border into Norway and along coastal regions of Norway and Sweden on the Skagerrak Strait. In the Baltics, deficits will be exceptional in Estonia and of varying intensity in Latvia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will increase, becoming widespread in Western and Central Europe and reaching into Eastern Europe and the Balkans as surpluses shrink. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in several regions including much of west-central France from the Bay of Biscay past the Rhone River. Anomalies will be exceptional along the Rhone. Other areas with a forecast of intense deficit include western Spain; Vatican City and northern Italy; the Drava, Rhine, and Oder Rivers; eastern Czech Republic; and southern Belgium into Luxembourg. Deficits will increase on the Iberian Peninsula, but intense surpluses will persist in Valencia. Pockets of moderate deficit will emerge in England and in Cork County, Ireland, and moderate surpluses in the far Scottish Highlands. Surpluses will persist in Ukraine’s northern tip.

Northern Europe can expect widespread deficits in the southern halves of Norway and Sweden, including intense deficits in the Dalälven River region of central Sweden and the Vasterbotten region farther north. In the Baltics, deficits will be exceptional in Estonia and of varying intensity in Latvia. Surpluses are forecast in central Iceland, eastern Denmark, Sweden’s Norbotten County, Arctic Norway, and many regions in European Russia.

From September through November, deficits will shrink and moderate considerably, leaving lingering anomalies primarily in France, Czech Republic, central Sweden, and the Baltics. Surpluses will persist in Iceland, Arctic Norway, Murmansk, northernmost Ukraine, and pockets in Russia including the Vychegda Lowland and much of the Volga River Watershed.

The forecast for December 2022 through February 2023 indicates some pockets of deficit in France, Italy, Greece, and central Sweden. Areas of surplus include Switzerland, Lithuania, Belarus, western Russia and Murmansk, and southern Norway.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
With river levels on the Po River, Italy’s longest waterway, dropping by as much as 2.7 meters below the zero gauge, a reference level established on historical datum, more than 100 towns in the region are rationing water. The level is well below the June average, exacerbated by recent high temperatures and a dearth of winter snowpack in the southern Alps.

The drought is the region’s worst in 70 years according to the Po Basin Authority, threatening the area’s farms where 40 percent of the nation’s food is sourced. Current estimates indicate a 30 to 40 percent reduction in fruit and vegetable harvests. Nationwide, Italy’s wheat production is expected to drop by 15 percent. Tanker trucks are delivering drinking water to Po communities and low water levels along some stretches of the river have exposed several sunken WWII vessels.

Italy is not alone in its water woes as France continues to experience drought conditions affecting agriculture and power. While some of the nation’s famed vineyard regions have received recent precipitation it has fallen upon drought-ravaged ground, leaving growers concerned.

To address drought hardships faced by agricultural producers in general, France’s federal government has promised financial support to farmers for animal feed and water conservation technologies, will allocate additional funds for reservoir development, and will reform its crop insurance policies.

French energy company, EDF, has reduced power production at one of its nuclear reactors due to low flow on the Rhône River, source of water critical to the plant’s cooling process.

Nearly all of Portugal was in severe drought at the end of May. In Moldova, analysts are projecting a 30 percent decline in the wheat harvest due to drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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