Middle East: Water deficits in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran

25 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending November indicates widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and central and northeastern Iran.

On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits of varying intensity, including exceptional, are forecast throughout much of Saudi Arabia though mixed conditions are expected in the provinces on the central shore of the Red Sea. In Yemen, exceptional surpluses are forecast northeast of Sanaa, and deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) in the center of the country. Extreme deficits are expected in Qatar, and intense deficits as well as transitional conditions in United Arab Emirates.

In Iraq, exceptional deficits are forecast in the south, deficits of varying intensity and transitional conditions west of the Euphrates, moderate deficits around Baghdad, and pockets of surplus in the northeast. Iran can expect intense deficits in the central provinces, downgrading somewhat in the northeast. Surpluses are expected from Tehran to the Caspian Sea Coast, in a pocket of the south near the Strait of Hormuz, in the central Zagros Mountains, and in the north approaching Lake Urmia.

Mixed conditions are forecast in the Levant including surpluses in central Israel and Cyprus, and surpluses in central Syria with deficits in the east and north. In Turkey, moderate deficits are forecast in the northwest, surpluses near Konya and in the Kizilirmak River Basin, and deficits in most other regions, including exceptional deficits southwest of Lake Van.

Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia and moderate deficits in Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates widespread deficits on the Arabian Peninsula. Anomalies will be exceptional spanning the border of Yemen and Oman, severe to extreme throughout Riyadh Province, and moderate in Qatar. In Iraq, moderate to severe deficits are expected in the south, some pockets of moderate deficit west of Lakes Razzaza (Milh) and Habbaniyah in the center of the country, and surpluses in the northeast. Surpluses will reach into Iran near Lake Urmia and are also forecast along the Caspian Coast into the northeast, through the central Zagros Mountains, and in the southern port city of Bandar-e-Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz. Deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast in southern Iran from the Strait to the Pakistan border, and moderate deficits in central provinces. In the Levant, surpluses are expected in central Syria, central Israel, Gaza, and Cyprus. Regions of Turkey with a forecast of surplus include a pocket on the coast near Cyprus, the Konya region, and the Kizilirmak River Basin in the north. Deficits are forecast in the Upper Ceyhan River region and the Upper Kura River region. Mixed conditions are expected in Georgia.

From June through August, surpluses in the region will shrink and deficits will increase, particularly in Iran and Turkey. Deficits will intensify in Riyadh Province, becoming exceptional, while retreating from the border region of Yemen and Oman. Deficits will also intensify in southern Iraq and will increase and intensify in Iran and Turkey. Anomalies will be exceptional in many pockets of central Iran and in Southeastern Anatolia. Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in the Levant and deficits will increase in the Lesser Caucasus region.

In the final quarter – September through November – deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade overall but will remain widespread in Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Precipitation in Iran is down 15.5 percent since the end of September, the beginning of the nation’s water year. The IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies) estimates that 4.8 million people are at risk of drought impacts. The organization is soliciting CHF 9 million (US $9.7 million) to provide support including cash, adaptation training for farmers and herders, medical treatment for dust-related breathing issues, and psychological help for those dealing with migration and loss of livelihood.

In Iran’s Khuzestan Province at the northern end of the Persian Gulf, water-intensive crops like corn and paddy are banned for the summer. Drinking water sourced from the Karkheh River is expected to be severely limited, prompting water authorities to plan piped water for communities in need.

The International Organization for Migration reports that, as of mid-March, over 20,000 Iraqis remain displaced due to climate disruptions including drought. Many are from the southern governates, particularly Thi-Qar, and the majority of migrants (74 percent) overall have ended up in urban locations.

In early March, a massive sandstorm blew into Bagdad, Iraq’s capital, sending over 1,500 people to hospitals with breathing problems and resulting in one death. Dry conditions created a thick layer of dust over the city and the Kurdistan region, darkening skies and impeding drivers.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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