East Asia: Water surplus will persist in NE China & Yellow River

24 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through November indicates widespread severe to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China. Anomalies will be particularly widespread from eastern Inner Mongolia into Jilin. Moderate surpluses are expected in the Liaodong Peninsula on the Bohai Sea and in North Korea. Deficits are expected in China’s far northeast.

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in the vast Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed and into the North China Plain, though nearly normal conditions are expected along the river’s Ordos Loop. Normal water conditions are expected in the Yangtze River Watershed, but moderate surpluses are forecast in the Sichuan Basin. In southern China, surpluses are expected in eastern Yunnan, southern Guangxi, and southern Hainan. Western Tibet (Xizang) will see intense surpluses including exceptional surpluses on the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River. Widespread deficits are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across the breadth of Xinjiang Uygur and will include exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in northern Qinghai.

In Mongolia, deficits will be intense in the western Gobi Desert, the lakes region in the nation’s northwest, and a pocket surrounding Ulaanbaatar. Surpluses are forecast in the Khovsgol region in the north and in the central Hangayn Mountains and the central Hentiyn Mountains. Near-normal conditions are forecast for Japan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates persistent, widespread surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in many regions, particularly in the Northeast. Surpluses will nearly disappear in the Yangtze River Watershed, persisting with intensity in the Sichuan Basin, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge in parts of the river’s lower and middle catchment from Shanghai to Three Gorges Dam. In South China, surpluses will retreat from the eastern Pearl River (Zhujiang) region but emerge in the river’s western tributaries and increase somewhat in Hainan. Widespread deficits of varying intensity will emerge in western Inner Mongolia, northern Qinghai, and across Xinjiang Uygur. In Mongolia, exceptional deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast across the Gobi Desert in the south. Exceptional deficits will reach north past Ulaanbaatar; surpluses are forecast in much of the remaining northern extent. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in South Korea, moderate deficits in southern Japan, and surpluses on Hokkaido’s west coast.

From June through August, surpluses, while shrinking and downgrading considerably in China, will persist in the Northeast and Yellow River Basin. Surpluses in South China will shrink in most of the western Pearl River Watershed but will increase in southern Yunnan. Conditions in the Yangtze Basin will be nearly normal with some deficits lingering south of Shanghai and emerging from former surplus in a pocket in the Sichuan Basin. Deficits from western Inner Mongolia through northern Qinghai and Xinjiang Uygur will shrink somewhat. Surpluses will persist in western Tibet and mild deficits will emerge in the east. Anomalies in Mongolia will shrink and downgrade considerably. On the Korean Peninsula, moderate surpluses will appear, transitioning from deficit in the south. Near-normal conditions are forecast in Japan.

The forecast for the final three months – September through November – indicates that deficits will increase in Sichuan and emerge in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi as surpluses disappear. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China and pockets in the Yellow River Basin.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Dry conditions in South Korea helped fuel a wildfire during early March that required 7,300 people to evacuate. The fire damaged 512 buildings including 343 homes and swept through nearly 17,000 hectares. Around 18,000 firefighting personnel were deployed to combat the blaze that started in the coastal town of Uljin.

Through the first two months of the year, precipitation in South Korea has been just 12 percent of the average and as low as 3.2 percent in one region, negatively affecting onion and garlic crops. With the winter drought continuing into spring, a rural water management association will release water sufficient for 30,000 hectares that had been stockpiled to last for the entire farming season.

Precipitation in North Korea from December to February was significantly below average as well, just 14.7 percent of the 1991-2020 average, the lowest in 73 years, causing wheat and barley crops to die.

China’s water ministry announced that this year’s flood season began on 17 March, 15 days earlier that average. Continuous rainfall in the Lower Yangtze River region caused the Qiupu and Huanghu Rivers to rise above flood stage.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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