Central Asia & Russia: Widespread water surplus from N Euro Russia to Yenisei

23 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and in Turkistan Region in the far south, moderate deficits north of the Caspian Sea, and exceptional surpluses in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in the north. South of Lake Balkhash, moderate deficits are forecast though conditions will be mixed in the Alataw Mountains nearby and moderate surpluses are forecast on the Ili River from Kapchagay Reservoir to the Chinese border.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast throughout Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and will be exceptional in the Fergana Valley. Surpluses are expected in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

West of the Urals in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the Vychegda Lowland and coastal north, the Middle Volga River, Trans-Volga, and Lower Volga regions. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Lowland and Middle Volga regions.

East of the Urals, deficits are forecast in the Tura River region reaching to Tyumen, and in the north spanning the Gulf of Ob. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in much of the Western Siberian Plain with transitions at its eastern edge leading to widespread, intense deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Plateau’s northeast between the Olenek and Tyung Rivers. In Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China, while intense deficits are forecast west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates the emergence of widespread surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Yenisei River Watershed and will include exceptional anomalies, especially from the Vakh River through the Lower Yenisei Watershed. Intense deficits will persist spanning the Gulf of Ob and moderate to severe deficits in Sverdlovsk Oblast in the Ural District, including the Tura River region. Deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau will shrink and intense deficits will persist west of the Sea of Okhotsk. Surpluses will remain widespread from Baikal through Russian regions bordering China. Relatively normal water conditions are expected in much of Central Asia. Intense surpluses will emerge in northern Kazakhstan, though moderate deficits are forecast on the Ishim River as it crosses the Russian border, and moderate surpluses are expected in the Kazakh Upland north of Lake Balkhash. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Kyrgyzstan and central Tajikistan, and exceptional deficits along the Pamir River in Tajikistan’s southeast.

From June through August, surpluses in Russia will shrink considerably, and deficits including exceptional anomalies will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau and Irkutsk Oblast becoming widespread. Deficits will emerge in the Pechora River Watershed in the tundra, transitioning from surplus. Surpluses east of Baikal will shrink and deficits west of the Sea of Okhotsk, while downgrading, will be severe. Deficits are forecast in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern and western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan, along the Ili River, and in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates deficits from Russia’s Pechora River Watershed through the Yenisei Watershed, and in eastern Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Surpluses are forecast in the Volga and Ob River regions, northern Kazakhstan and the Alataw Mountains, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After last year’s drought in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia, authorities have now begun discussion on effective distribution of drought relief funds to farmers. The plan originally included 148 million rubles for the purchase of feed, but the country’s current economic situation has impacted the allocation scheme. Farmers will compete for agricultural grants and for partial reimbursement of costs associated with agricultural cooperatives. The region received barely any rain from May 2021 through the end of the year.

Kyrgyzstan’s ministry of agriculture will spend 1 billion soms (US $10 million) on preparing the nation’s irrigation system for the coming season. Drought last year contributed to low crop yields.

Kazakhstan will sell Kyrgyzstan a new variety of drought-resistant wheat, Karabalykskaya 20, at 4.5 percent interest on loans up to 300,000 soms (US $3,000).

Abnormally high snowfall in Samara Oblast in the Volga River region of Russia has led to flooding that inundated many roads. With snow precipitation 150 to 200 percent above the norm and end-of-February temperatures 7 degrees warmer than average, conditions left municipal workers with 2,000 cubic meters of melt water to pump out.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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