Canada: Intense water deficits in QC, ON, MB

25 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through November indicates widespread water deficits in the eastern half of the nation. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, Nova Scotia’s southern tip, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, the Smallwood Reservoir region in Labrador, the Manicouagan Reservoir region in Quebec, a vast area near Lake Mistassini, and the lower Saint-Maurice River region as it empties into the St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City.

Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in much of Southern Ontario though a belt of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along Ontario’s eastern border reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario and will include exceptional anomalies in Kenora District.

In the Prairie Provinces, nearly normal conditions are forecast across the south with deficits east of Winnipeg. Exceptional deficits will belt central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Central Saskatchewan can expect deficits, but surpluses are forecast in the northwest quadrant leading west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Exceptional deficits are expected in northwestern Alberta, deficits of varying intensity in the Middle Athabasca River region, and surpluses north of Banff.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia leading east into the Columbia Watershed. Deficits are expected at opposite ends of the province’s southern region in Vancouver Island and in East Kootenay. The Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds will see intense deficits as will British Columbia’s central far north, from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates that, although deficits in Quebec will shrink somewhat, vast areas of intense deficit are forecast. Smaller pockets of intense deficit will persist on Newfoundland’s southern coast, in east-central New Brunswick, and the Lower St. Maurice River east of Montreal. Surpluses will retreat from the Gaspé Peninsula, emerge in northwestern Newfoundland, and persist near Toronto. Near-normal conditions are forecast in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces, deficits east of Winnipeg, Manitoba, and intense deficits in central and northern Manitoba. Intense deficits will also persist in central Saskatchewan and central and northwestern Alberta. Surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta and will increase in the Canadian Rockies of southern Alberta. Surpluses will also increase in southern British Columbia. Deficits will retreat from Vancouver Island but persist in the Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds and from Williston Lake in the far north into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

From June through August, moderate deficits will increase in eastern Canada and surpluses will nearly disappear. Deficits in southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and southern Nova Scotia will downgrade. Intense deficits will persist in Manitoba’s northern half but will shrink in central Saskatchewan and central Alberta. Deficits in British Columbia will downgrade, and surpluses are expected from the Cariboo Region of the south into the Rockies of southern Alberta.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates that deficits will shrink considerably in Quebec and Southern Ontario. Deficits will persist in Northern Ontario, central and northeastern Manitoba, and pockets of central Saskatchewan, central and northwestern Alberta, and from central British Columbia into Northern Territories. Surpluses in the south will shrink.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent livestock report indicates that the Canadian cattle inventory is at its lowest in 30 years, with extreme weather playing a significant role. Drought and heat in the Prairie Provinces and flooding in western Canada that disrupted transport routes contributed to the decline.

Soil moisture reserves remain depleted in the Prairie. As of late February, parts of southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan were categorized in extreme drought according to the national drought monitor. The war against Ukraine by Russia has constrained international supplies of wheat and canola so the global market is looking to Canada to help make up some of that loss.

The Canadian government and Washington State have agreed to coordinate plans to address flooding in the shared Noosack River region, site of extensive flood damage during November of last year. In Washington, 500 residents were displaced while 14,000 Canadians were evacuated. Damages are estimated in the millions on the U.S. side of the border and into the billions in British Columbia.

On the opposite side of the nation, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are looking to protect their shared land link from flooding. Engineers have estimated that the cost would be between $189 and $300 million to improve dikes along the 35 kilometer route. Once approved, the project could take up to 15 years to be completed.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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