Africa: Water deficits in N Africa will downgrade

19 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in many regions across northern Africa, particularly Egypt, Libya, and Algeria along with some transitional areas (pink/purple).

Surpluses are forecast in large pockets of the Sahel and will be extreme in Zinder Region in southeastern Niger. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in south-central Mauritania, central Mali including Timbuktu, central and northern Chad, Sudan between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers, and western Eritrea.

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West Africa can expect deficits of varying intensity in Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, northern Guinea, southern Ghana, northern Benin, and pockets of Nigeria. Anomalies will be intense in northeastern Nigeria through Cameroon into southern Chad, and from southeastern Nigeria reaching across central Cameroon. Along the mid-Atlantic, exceptional deficits are expected in Equatorial Guinea and southern Gabon. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in northwestern Angola and exceptional deficits in the southwest surrounding Lubango.

In the heart of the continent, moderate to extreme deficits will prevail in eastern Central African Republic and through the northern half of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, becoming extreme to exceptional in the middle Kibali River region of the northeast. Moderate deficits are expected in South Sudan’s western half, and deficits of varying intensity in Uganda. In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast for southern Eritrea, Djibouti, western Somaliland, the Genale (Jubba) River region in south-central Ethiopia, and Somalia’s southern tip. Anomalies will be exceptional in Eritrea and coastal Somaliland. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley and severe surpluses a bit farther south.

In East Africa, exceptional deficits are expected in coastal Kenya and moderate surpluses in many regions of Tanzania. Mozambique’s northwestern corner will experience moderate deficits while moderate surpluses are expected in its southern extreme. In southern Africa, surpluses are forecast in the Kalahari Desert of eastern Namibia and Botswana and surrounding Lake Xau in central Botswana, but deficits are forecast in a pocket on Namibia’s southern coast near Luderitz. Western Cape, South Africa, can expect surpluses while moderate to severe deficits are forecast east of Johannesburg and in Lesotho. A few pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in Madagascar, primarily in the south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates moderate deficits across northern Africa along with some vast areas of intense deficit. Intense deficits will re-emerge in northwestern Algeria, persist in southeastern Libya and western Egypt, and emerge in northern Sudan. Conditions will normalize across much of the southern Sahara and the Sahel as surpluses shrink, but anomalies are forecast in central Mali, Niger’s Zinder Region, northern Chad, and southeastern Sudan into Eritrea. Surpluses will be intense in Zinder Region and in the inland delta of the Niger River in Mali. Surpluses will persist in the Nugaal Valley in the Horn, throughout Tanzania, pockets of Mozambique, Western Cape, and the Kalahari Basin where transitional conditions are also forecast. Pockets of exceptional deficit will persist in central Cameroon and western Angola and will emerge in central Zambia and near Lake Kariba. Other regions with a forecast of deficit include southern Somalia, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Lesotho.

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The forecast for November 2021 through January 2022 indicates exceptional deficits in southern Eritrea and northwestern Nigeria surrounding Kaduna. Deficits of lesser intensity are forecast for western Egypt and southeastern Libya, southeastern Algeria, northern Sudan, and central Cameroon. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Nugaal along with transitional conditions. Surpluses elsewhere include southeastern Sudan; pockets in eastern Tanzania and southern Mozambique; the southern Kalahari Desert and the region around Lake Xau, Botswana; and Western Cape.

The forecast for the final quarter – February through April 2022 – indicates severe to exceptional deficits in Egypt, southeastern Libya, northern Sudan, and Eritrea, and deficits of lesser intensity in northern Nigeria, Guinea, and Algeria. Surpluses are expected in Nugaal, pockets of Tanzania, and Western Cape.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As the temperature reached 48 degrees Celsius (118 Fahrenheit) in early August, fires raged through the mountains and forests of Kabylie region in northern Algeria. Over 1,000 civil defense workers were deployed to combat multiple blazes that killed 65 people including 28 soldiers. Though wildfires are not uncommon in the area which has limited access to water, recent events were much more widespread, scorching olive groves and livestock. Officials suspect arson.

Flooding and landslides due to heavy rain have left 64 dead in Niger since June. Nearly 70,000 people have been affected and cholera, a water-borne illness, has spread, killing 16 people.

Flash flooding in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa claimed at least seven lives in mid-August, submerging roads, stranding cars, and damaging buildings.

Hundreds of people have fled northern Cameroon’s Logone and Chari Division amid violence that left 18 people dead and 70 wounded in recent conflicts between ranchers and fisherman related to water. Cattle owners claim their livestock are dying after falling into holes dug by the fisherman to conserve water and lure catch. The region is part of the Lake Chad Basin and over the last half-century the lake has lost nearly 70 percent of its water, driving settlers to the Longone River region in a competition for resources.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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