Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses will increase in Sonora & Durango

20 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending April 2022 indicates normal water conditions in many parts of Mexico. However, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in the Yaqui River Watershed of Sonora, the San Pedro-Mezquital Watershed in Durango and Zacatecas, and along the Pacific Coast from Jalisco into Guerrero. Smaller pockets of moderate surplus are expected around Mexico City and the Urique River Watershed in the Copper Canyon region of southwestern Chihuahua.

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Deficits are expected in the northern Baja Peninsula and will include exceptional anomalies. Severe deficits are expected in southern Veracruz and pockets of moderate deficit in southeastern Chihuahua and southern Tamaulipas.

In Central America and the Caribbean, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast from southern Nicaragua through western Panama. In the northern nations of Central America, no widespread anomalies are expected but the forecast indicates some pockets of moderate surplus. Intense surpluses are forecast in Cuba and Jamaica, and small pockets of deficit in Hispaniola.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that surpluses in the Yaqui River Watershed of Sonora will increase and intensify, becoming severe to extreme overall with exceptional anomalies near the border with Arizona. Surpluses will also increase in the San Pedro-Mezquital Watershed in Durango and Zacatecas, but surpluses along the central Pacific Coast will shrink. Other areas of surplus include the Urique River Watershed in the Copper Canyon region of southwestern Chihuahua and a pocket in the Yucatan Peninsula near Belize. Deficits from southern Veracruz into Tabasco will increase somewhat and intensify, becoming severe to exceptional. Deficits in Baja will be mild.

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In Central America, surpluses will shrink considerably and downgrade though anomalies will persist from southern Nicaragua through Panama, and in some pockets of Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras. Surpluses are forecast in Cuba, surpluses and transitional conditions in Jamaica, and deficits on Dominican Republic’s western points.

From November 2021 through January 2022, surpluses will moderate overall in the Yaqui and San Pedro-Mezquital Watersheds of Mexico, retreating elsewhere in the nation. Deficits will moderate in southern Veracruz and emerge in southeastern Chihuahua. Surpluses in Central America will continue to shrink, persisting primarily in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica, and small pockets of mild deficit will begin to emerge in northern nations. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Jamaica and intense surpluses in much of Cuba. Deficits in Dominican Republic’s western points will moderate.

The forecast for the final three months – February through April 2022 – indicates that exceptional deficits will emerge in the central Pacific states and deficits will increase in Mexico’s central north, in the south, and in southern Baja. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Sonora but persist from southern Durango into Zacatecas. Moderate deficits will increase in northern Central America, and surpluses will persist from southern Nicaragua into Costa Rica and in Jamaica and Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After successive years of drought, cattle ranchers in northern Mexico have watched herds dwindle with livestock numbers in the state of Sonora reduced by 42 percent. Cattle that didn’t starve from lack of pasture and water were sold to slaughter early forcing some ranchers to contemplate abandoning family farms. Recent rainfall in northern Sonora has not been enough to refill depleted dams prompting water authorities to cut off irrigation allocations to preserve water for household needs.

Due to drought on the Colorado River, U.S. federal authorities have declared an official Tier 1 water shortage that will reduce allocations to downstream users including Mexico. The announcement, made in mid-August and effective in 2022, will trim Mexico’s cut by 5 percent, 80,000 acre-feet, with the possibility of greater cuts.

Recue efforts have been hampered by extreme rainfall after a devastating 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck Haiti on 14 August killing at least 1,419 people. Flooding and mudslides have blocked roads, delaying humanitarian efforts.

Heavy rainstorms in late July produced flooding in Costa Rica that killed two people. Over 3,000 people were evacuated as several rivers burst their banks and a bridge in Limón Province was damaged. In Panana, 30,000 people were affected in Bocas del Torro Province where 196.5 mm (nearly 8 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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