Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses will persist in Indonesia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses will persist in Indonesia

19 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2022 indicates water surpluses in many regions of Myanmar. Anomalies will be extreme in the southwestern states. Severe surpluses are forecast in Cambodia east of the Mekong River reaching into southern Laos and Vietnam. In northeastern Laos and the Mekong Delta, primarily moderate surpluses are predicted.

Pockets of deficits are expected in eastern Thailand and Myanmar’s far north.

Water surpluses are forecast in the Lesser Sunda Islands and will be exceptional in western Timor (Indonesia). Severe surpluses are expected in Sulawesi’s northern arm and in the Maluku Islands. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are in the forecast for the Bird’s Head Peninsula (Doberai) of New Guinea, pockets in the center of the island, and the southern region of Papua, Indonesia.  

In Sumatra, deficits are forecast in a pocket around the metropolis of Medan, and surpluses in Banda Aceh at the northern tip of the island.

The central and southern Philippines can expect moderate surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that surpluses will shrink considerably in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, and generally downgrade but remain widespread elsewhere. Surpluses will linger in Myanmar, particularly in the west, while transitional conditions are forecast for the center of the country. Deficits are forecast in eastern Thailand between the Mun and Chi Rivers, and a few small pockets elsewhere in Southeast Asia including Vietnam’s northwest corner and west of Danang. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are expected in many large pockets throughout the Pacific region. Intense surpluses along with transitional conditions are forecast for the Lesser Sunda Islands. Areas of severe surplus include the Maluku Islands, Sulawesi’s northern arm, and Banda Aceh in northern Sumatra. Moderate surpluses are expected in Borneo, and will linger in coastal Mindanao, Philippines. Deficits around the Gulf of Papua and near Medan, Sumatra will shrink.

From November 2021 through January 2022, surpluses will nearly disappear in Southeast Asia as mild deficits emerge. Severe deficits will persist in a pocket of Thailand between the Mon and Chi Rivers. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for the Lesser Sundas and eastern Java, Sulawesi, the Malukus, and pockets of New Guinea.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2022 – indicates the emergence of exceptional deficits in the region of the Middle Irrawaddy River in Myanmar. Surpluses will shrink in the Pacific, lingering though downgrading in Sulawesi’s northern arm, the Lesser Sundas, and along New Guinea’s southern coast. Mild to moderate deficits are forecast for pockets of Malaysia, Sumatra, Java, and western Borneo.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in late July produced flooding in several regions of Myanmar, including Mon State near the Thai border where 533 mm (21 inches) of precipitation fell in just 48 hours and 20,000 people were affected. Swollen rivers in neighboring Kayin State threatened to halt essential COVID-19 supplies of oxygen and medicine coming from Thailand.

The southwest monsoon brought storms and flooding to the Philippines in late July. Three deaths were reported and 80,000 people were evacuated, including 20,000 from the Metro Manila area.

Aceh Province, Indonesia suffered flooding after intense precipitation in mid-August as doctors at the local hospital waded through floodwaters while attending COVID-19 patients. Landslides blocked a section of highway and floodwaters were 20 to 40 centimeters (~8-16 inches) deep in one district. Experts worry that an early start to the rainy season combined with the aggressive Delta variant could tax the region’s health care system.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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