Canada: Intense water deficits forecast for southern MB

27 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through December 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia’s southern tip, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario reaching east through Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City. Likewise, deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District. In Manitoba, deficits are expected in the south that will be extreme around Winnipeg and exceptional on the Assiniboine River west of the city. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg and on Hudson Bay, with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching west into Saskatchewan.

Conditions in southern Saskatchewan will be normal, but the northwest can expect severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Surpluses are expected in a pocket east of Calgary, Alberta. Deficits will be intense in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia.

Deficits are forecast near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Deficits are also forecast southeast of Prince George, on Vancouver Island, and in the province’s southeast corner. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Fraser River Watershed of the south where anomalies will be exceptional near Kelowna.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that, in the east, deficits will increase in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and the Gaspé Peninsula as surpluses retreat. Surpluses will emerge in eastern Labrador and on Hudson Bay in Quebec in the southwestern Ungava Peninsula, but will retreat south of the Gouin Reservoir. Deficits will increase along the St. Lawrence River and will persist in vast blocks on the Quebec/Labrador border, along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini, and spanning much of the Ontario/Quebec border.

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Deficits are forecast in much of Ontario though surpluses will increase in the northeast along Hudson Bay. Deficits will become exceptional in southern Manitoba but will shrink considerably in southern Saskatchewan. Anomalies in the northern reaches of both provinces will remain much the same as in the prior three months. Likewise, conditions in Alberta will be much the same, but exceptional deficits will increase in the Middle Athabasca River region and in the northwest. Anomalies in northern British Columbia will shrink. Widespread surpluses will persist in much of the Fraser River watershed though deficits are forecast near Prince George. Deficits are also forecast in the province’s southeast corner and on Vancouver Island.

From July through September, deficits of varying intensity are forecast in much of the eastern half of the nation. Deficits in southern Manitoba will moderate, and near-normal conditions are forecast for southern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. In British Columbia, surpluses in the south will shrink.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates that conditions in much of the east will normalize. In the Prairie Provinces, near-normal conditions are expected in the south. Surpluses will shrink in southern British Columbia and deficits will retreat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
By the end of March, a lot of red was popping out on the Manitoba drought monitor map in the southern part of the province indicating precipitation levels below 40 percent of the median for the month. Many nervous canola farmers are cutting back on plantings for fear the seeds won’t germinate and the spring wheat crop is also at risk. One industry expert predicts that forage and grassland production, essential for livestock maintenance, will be down by 20 percent this year due to dry conditions despite resiliency practices. Considering the high fire potential in the region, authorities have imposed restrictions on camping, ATV travel, and burn permits.

A days-long mid-April rainstorm flooded the Trans-Canada Highway in Newfoundland, creating conditions that buckled a portion of the roadway under several heavy trucks, temporarily halting traffic.

British Columbia’s ministry of public safety warns that much of the province is at high risk of spring flooding due to increased snowpack, particularly as warmer weather moves in. Snowpack in the Okanagan region was at 109 percent of normal in the middle of April and 103 percent in the Boundary and North Thompson areas.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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