Middle East: Water deficits will increase in Turkey & the Levant

Middle East: Water deficits will increase in Turkey & the Levant

26 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending December 2021 indicates widespread, intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and in many regions of central and southern Iran. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, central and southeastern Saudi Arabia, and spanning the border of Yemen and Oman. In Iran, deficits will be exceptional in Fars, Yazd, and South Khorasan Provinces, and along the Strait of Hormuz.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in pockets of Turkey, throughout Cyprus, and in the Levant. Exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for north-central Syria, but intense deficits are expected around Aleppo. In Iraq, deficits are forecast west of the Tigris River and anomalies will be exceptional in some regions, particularly in the south at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast near Mosul.

Surpluses are expected on Iran’s central Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran with transitional conditions near Turkmenistan. Surpluses are also forecast near Lake Urmia, in Lorestan Province, and in a large pocket on the northeastern end of the Persian Gulf.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that deficits will increase as surpluses shrink. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula with extreme to exceptional anomalies in central Saudi Arabia, particularly Riyadh. Deficits will moderate in Qatar and United Arab Emirates. Intense deficits will persist spanning the Yemen/Oman border and mild to moderate deficits are expected elsewhere in those nations. Deficits will increase in Turkey and will emerge in the Levant, where anomalies will be moderate overall but exceptional in southern Iraq. Surplus and transitional conditions are forecast for central and northern Syria. In the bulk of central Iran, primarily moderate deficits are forecast with more intense anomalies near the Persian Gulf and in pockets of the northeast. Some surpluses will persist in Iran including along the central Caspian Coast, near Lake Urmia, and Lorestan Province.

From July through September, surpluses will nearly disappear as transitions occur. On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits will remain intense in central Saudi Arabia but shrink considerably in Yemen and Oman. Deficits will downgrade in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria but will increase along the eastern Mediterranean and in Turkey. In Iran, mild to moderate deficits are forecast in many regions, but anomalies of greater intensity are expected in pockets throughout the northeastern provinces and in the south near the Persian Gulf.

In the final quarter – October through December – some deficits are forecast, primarily in south-central and northwestern Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will re-emerge near Mosul, and in Iran near Tehran and leading along the Caspian Coast in the northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Kurdish farmers in Iraq are becoming increasingly concerned about their rainfed wheat and barley crops as drought takes hold, the third drought in the Kurdistan Region in the last 20 years. In one district, rainfall measured just 182 milliliters by 10 April 2021, barely a third of the amount recorded during the same period last year. Shortages are affecting orchard crops and cattle as well. Even the normally lush mountainous areas near the border with Iran are dry. Rivers in the region are further threatened by upstream damming.

Nearly 600 sinkholes have been counted in Turkey’s Konya region this year, considered the nation’s breadbasket, a significant increase since last year. The underground caverns form when groundwater extraction creates instability, causing the upper layer of land to simply collapse on itself. Meteorological drought - precipitation shortfalls - combined with hydrological drought - low groundwater - have threatened the nation’s agricultural sector which consumes 77 percent of Turkey’s water.

Water rights protests continue to erupt in Iran where farmers marched in Esfahan Province in late April objecting to water diversion on the Zayandeh-Rud river amid drought conditions.

The United Arab Emirates will announce new regulations to limit water consumption by 40 percent, part of a broader strategy that also includes a new cloud-seeding technique, a digital water platform for information, and a plan to separate power generation from desalination.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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