Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficits in SW Kazakhstan on Caspian

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficits in SW Kazakhstan on Caspian

27 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December 2021 indicates widespread deficits in much of the northern and eastern Caspian Basin including exceptional anomalies in southwestern Kazakhstan. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for most of Uzbekistan and eastern Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in a pocket along Turkmenistan’s central Caspian Coast; a large pocket in the northern Kyzylkum Desert from Uzbekistan into Kazakhstan; the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan; and south of Lake Balkhash. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the southern portion of the Fergana Valley. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity.

In Russia, deficits are forecast in the Middle and TransVolga regions; much of the Pechora River Watershed; the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and the western reaches of the Ob River Watershed and around the city of Surgut on the Middle Ob; the Taz River region and the Lower Yenisei and its eastern tributaries; the Lena River Watershed from Yakutsk nearly to Lake Baikal; and a vast stretch from the Alden River (an eastern tributary of the Lena) to the Sea of Okhotsk (not shown). Deficits will be exceptional in many areas. Surpluses are forecast in coastal Arctic Russia, the Upper Ob River region, much of the Tom River Watershed, around Irkutsk west of Lake Baikal, and between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers near the Lower Lena River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that severe deficits will emerge in the upper regions of TransVolga, and exceptional deficits in a large block north of Tyumen and also in a small pocket around the city of Surgu on the Middle Ob River. Intense deficits are also forecast on the middle banks of the Gulf of Ob and through the region of the Lower Yenisei River where transitional conditions are also expected (pink/purple). A vast expanse of water surplus is forecast from the eastern Ob River Watershed through the Middle portion of the Yenisei Watershed, and the Tom River Watershed to the south. The eastern tributaries of the Yenisei, however, will see intense deficits. Deficits will persist in a wide path through the Middle Lena River Watershed on either side of Yakutsk and will include exceptional anomalies. A vast area of exceptional surplus will emerge in the region west of the Lower Lena River.

In Central Asia, exceptional surpluses are expected in the Ishim River region in northern Kazakhstan including Nur-Sultan, and southeast of Lake Balkhash; the Kyzylkum Desert from Uzbekistan into Kazakhstan; and central Tajikistan. Surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for eastern Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses in Turkmenistan will shrink, persisting in a pocket on the central Caspian Coast, and moderate deficits will emerge reaching into southern Uzbekistan. Deficits in southwestern Kazakhstan near the Caspian Sea will intensify, becoming exceptional, as will deficits in the Pamir River Watershed of eastern Tajikistan.

From July through September, surpluses will shrink as deficits emerge. Widespread intense deficits will emerge in the Pechora River Watershed in Russia, and, transitioning from surplus, in the region past the Urals reaching along the eastern arm of the Ob River. Intense deficits will increase in the Yenisei River Watershed. Deficits in TransVolga will downgrade. Deficits in much of the Upper and Middle Lena River Watershed will remain intense but deficits around Yakutsk will downgrade to mild. Exceptional surpluses will persist near the Lower Lena River Watershed between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses will persist in the north and near Lake Balkhash, and deficits near the Caspian will moderate. Deficits will intensify in eastern Uzbekistan and persist in Turkmenistan. Surpluses will moderate in central Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgystan. Deficits in the Pamir River Watershed will nearly disappear.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates that deficits will shrink, persisting mainly in the vast region of the Lower Yenisei River Watershed. Surpluses will re-emerge in greater extent in the Middle and Upper Ob regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Early April brought the Russian military to southern Siberia for an ice-blasting operation, a preemptive effort to avoid flooding on the Biya River in Altai Krai. Warm weather and snow depths three times greater than normal have brought the threat of major flooding to river communities. The planned explosions shatter the ice into small shards, preventing ice-jams from larger pieces.

In late April, smoke from dozens of wildfires, some merely 10 kilometers away, left many of the more than 1.7 million residents of Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city, gasping for air. Air quality plunged to dangerous levels from carbon monoxide and fine particles carried by the smoke, creating a blanket of sickening smog over the metropolitan area.

Heavy rainfall at the end of March led to flooding in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, swallowing up roads and sidewalks. Roadways in Kazakhstan’s capital city of Nur-Sultan were also inundated in early April as heavy winter snowmelt left cars stranded in mud pits.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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