Middle East: Water deficits forecast for UAE

Middle East: Water deficits forecast for UAE

27 May 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending January 2021 indicates widespread persistent water surpluses from Syria into southeastern Turkey and in northern Iraq and many regions of Iran. Anomalies in Iran will encompass most of the western region of the country, reaching east around the Caspian Coast and along the Turkmen border, and south to the Gulf of Oman. Surpluses are also forecast in northern Sistan and Baluchestan Province in the southeast. Areas with a forecast of exceptional surplus include central Syria; around Mosul, Iraq; northeastern Iran; and southern Iran reaching inland from the Strait of Hormuz.

Yemen, too, can expect surpluses of varying intensity, and surpluses are also forecast for Israel and Gaza.

The forecast for Iraq west of the Euphrates indicates deficits in the northwest and south and mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates will also see deficits, though they will be more intense, along with transitional conditions. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Qatar.

Turkey can expect deficits in the west, north-central region, and in Eastern Thrace (European Turkey). Anomalies in Eastern Thrace will be exceptional. Intense deficits are forecast in Georgia north of Tbilisi.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through July indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink, though many areas of surplus will persist, particularly in Iran. Surpluses are expected in Israel and Gaza, central and northern Syria into Turkey, northern and eastern Iraq, western Iran, around Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast, and southern Iranian provinces near the Persian Gulf. Anomalies will be exceptional in central and northern Syria, surrounding Mosul in Iraq, along Iran’s Caspian Coast and through northeastern Iran, and near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran leading well into Kerman Province.

On the Arabian Peninsula, conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast for much of Saudi Arabia and Yemen as transitions occur, but intense deficits are expected as well. Exceptional deficits are forecast in eastern United Arab Emirates and moderate deficits in Qatar. Deficits are also forecast for Eastern Thrace and southwestern and north-central Turkey, and Georgia north of Tbilisi.

From August through October, surpluses will continue to shrink, though anomalies are forecast for northeastern Iraq, northwestern Iran and the central Caspian Coast, and southern Iran east of the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses will be exceptional around Mosul and near the Strait of Hormuz. Many areas of prior surplus will begin to transition with conditions of both surplus and deficit indicated (pink/purple). Deficits will remain intense in pockets of Saudi Arabia but will moderate in United Arab Emirates; moderate deficits will persist in Qatar. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Iraq and Kuwait. Deficits will moderate in Eastern Thrace and north of Tbilisi. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Iran and will re-emerge in pockets of Iraq west of the Euphrates.

In the final quarter – November through January – deficits will shrink and downgrade, though a few pockets are forecast in Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will persist in western Iran and will re-emerge in Yemen and Oman near the Saudi border.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Lake Meke, a volcanic crater lake in central Turkey, is drying up after years of drought and unregulated groundwater use. Designated a U.N. Ramsar Site, a “wetland of international importance,” the lake once measured 12 meters deep and was home to nearly 100 bird species but has since been reduced to a red puddle due to the presence of microorganisms.

Iraq’s marshes are rejuvenating after months of rainfall in the region brought water levels up to 82 percent, somewhat alleviating fears that Turkey’s massive Ilisu Dam project would severely reduce flows on the Tigris River. The governor of Basrah Province in the south says that increased precipitation has compensated for the 2015-2017 drought and that water supplies should be sufficient through the summer, regardless of Ilisu allocations.

Heavy rainfall produced flooding in Yemen in mid-April, affecting 150,000 people. Homes, roads, and bridges were destroyed, water supplies contaminated, and electrical service suspended. Polluted water sources add to the risk of cholera and malaria; since January, the country has seen 110,000 cases of suspected cholera.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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