Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surplus in N Kazakhstan

26 May 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2021 indicates that surplus anomalies will dominate a large region in Russia from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychedga Lowlands west of the Urals and along the Severnaya Dvina River. Intense deficits are forecast in the region of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River, a northern right tributary of the Yenisei River, and in central Irkutsk Oblast at the southward bend in the Angara River, another tributary farther south.

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Deficits are forecast in western Kazakhstan and its southern tip, and in western and central Uzbekistan, northernmost Turkmenistan, and eastern Tajikistan. Anomalies will be exceptional on the northern and northeastern Caspian coast and extreme in pockets of Uzbekistan and South Kazakhstan Province. Intense surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan and along the border of Turkmenistan and Iran. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from southern Uzbekistan into western Tajikistan and in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

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The forecast through July indicates that surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink and downgrade. Exceptional anomalies will persist in the Vychegda Lowland, along the Severnaya Dvina River, and in the tundra region near the Kara Sea. Widespread, intense deficits in the northern region of the Central Siberian Plateau will shrink considerably. Intense deficits are expected to emerge at the confluence of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River, a right tributary of the Yenisei, and the Taymura River, and also at the southward bend of the Angara River, another Yenisei tributary. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast where the Western Siberian Plain and the Central Siberian Plateau meet as transitions occur.

Anomalies in Kazakhstan, deficits and surpluses, will shrink, leaving normal conditions in much of the country. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in the north, however, and surpluses in the southeast near Lake Balkhash, while downgrading, will be severe; moderate deficits are expected in the west near the Caspian Sea. Exceptional surpluses will persist along Turkmenistan’s southern border. Surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast in eastern Uzbekistan including the Zarafshon River, and in western Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

From August through October, surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plateau will continue to shrink, leaving exceptional surpluses in the Vychegda Lowland, normal conditions in the Urals, and generally moderate to severe surpluses in the Ob River Watershed. Deficits will downgrade in the region of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River but will emerge northwest between the Taz River and the Yenisei. In Kazakhstan, exceptional surpluses will persist in the north and severe surpluses in the southeast; deficits will continue to emerge along the northeastern Caspian Coast while those north of the Caspian will shrink. Moderate deficits will increase in South Kazakhstan and will emerge in the center of the country. Mild to moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses will persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – November through January – indicates that anomalies in the region will diminish and moderate surpluses will emerge along the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan and Turmenistan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Record-setting high spring temperatures in Siberia have helped inaugurate an early start to fire season. Since January, temperatures in Siberia are averaging 3 degrees Celsius higher (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) than the long-term average, according to NOAA. The Siberian town of Boguchany had its warmest April ever, with temperatures soaring to 31 degrees Celsius (87.8 degrees Fahrenheit) on the 25th. By the end of the month, ten times as much territory was burning in Krasnoyarsk region compared to the same time as last year, three times as much in Trans-Baikal, and one-and-a-half times more in Amur. Around five million acres were estimated to be burning with one fire encompassing a million acres.

According to a recent study, in 2019 the Caspian Sea plunged to its lowest level in 25 years. A shorter flooding season on the Volga as well as a trend towards increasing sea surface temperatures on the Caspian may have contributed to the drop.

A week of heavy rainfall in early May caused a breach in Uzbekistan’s Sardoba Dam on the Syr Darya River, flooding several Uzbek districts as well as Turkistan region in Kazakhstan. Immediate evacuation was ordered for 90,000 people. At least 20 villages and 20,000 hectares of agricultural land were destroyed. So far, damages in Kazakhstan alone are estimated to be around US $1 million. Criminal proceedings are likely against the dam operators with suspected violations of safety precautions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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