Europe: Intense water deficits Finland, Baltics, Ukraine

Europe: Intense water deficits Finland, Baltics, Ukraine

23 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates intense water deficits in a broad column from Finland through eastern Romania; surpluses in northern European Russia, Ireland, and the United Kingdom; and nearly normal conditions in many remaining regions of Europe interspersed with significant pockets of surplus and deficit anomalies.

Deficits will be exceptional in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, western Ukraine, southern Moldova, and eastern Romania. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for European Russia from Moscow to the Caspian Sea.

Widespread surpluses are expected in Ireland, the U.K., and a vast stretch of northern European Russia, but many areas will also exhibit transitional conditions (pink/purple). Surpluses will be intense in the following regions of Russia: Karelia, Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland, and north of Rybinsk Reservoir.

Though many regions in Europe can expect nearly normal water conditions, numerous pockets of surplus and deficit are also forecast. Areas of intense deficit include, but are not limited to: Sweden’s southern half and northern extremes; southern Belgium; southwest of Dresden, Germany and into the Czech Republic; Auvergne in south-central France; northeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina; Sardinia, western Sicily, and a band across southern Italy; southern Peloponnese, Greece; and south of Lisbon, Portugal. Areas with a forecast of moderate deficit include southwestern Poland; Bulgaria and nations to the west in the Balkan Peninsula; and many scattered pockets throughout Central Europe. Areas with a forecast of surplus include Brittany and Normandy, France; isolated pockets in western Germany; Athens, Greece; and near Barcelona, Valencia, and Murcia (Spain).

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through June indicates that surpluses will diminish considerably in Central Europe though some pockets will persist, including Calais in northern France. Widespread, intense surpluses in Ireland and the U.K. will shrink and moderate overall and transitional conditions are forecast in Wales (pink/purple). Surpluses will also shrink and downgrade in northern European Russia but will remain widespread. Conditions are expected to normalize overall from St. Petersburg to Moscow, but deficits will emerge south of Lake Ladoga and widespread deficits of varying intensity will emerge from Moscow to the Caspian Sea.

Exceptional deficits will emerge in the southern half of Belarus and western half of Ukraine, joining a broad column of intense deficit from Finland and the Baltics through eastern Bulgaria. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in many pockets of Central and Eastern Europe and the northern Balkan Peninsula. Areas of intense deficit include central Poland; from central Germany leading southeast across the Czech border; southern Belgium; and central France. Italy can expect some pockets of deficit as well.

Nearly normal conditions are forecast for much of the Iberian Peninsula, but intense surpluses will persist in eastern Spain near Murcia, from east of Madrid to Valencia, and near Barcelona. Deficits are forecast near Lisbon, Portugal. Surpluses near Athens, Greece will increase and will be exceptional.

From July through September, surpluses will continue to shrink with moderate anomalies in eastern England and northernmost France; some pockets of moderate deficit will emerge in the U.K. Intense surpluses are forecast in: northern European Russia; Athens, Greece; northeastern Spain near Barcelona, and from Madrid to Valencia. Deficits in Belarus and western Ukraine will downgrade from exceptional but will be generally severe. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia, shrinking slightly, and deficits are forecast for southern Norway, southern Sweden, and Denmark. Pockets of deficit are forecast throughout Central and Eastern Europe, of moderate intensity overall though more intense conditions are forecast along the northeastern Czech border into Germany and in southern Belgium. Murcia, Spain will transition from surplus to intense deficit, and moderate deficits will emerge farther south along the coast and in a few pockets of southwestern Spain. Intense deficits will emerge in Mallorca and moderate to severe deficits in Sardinia.

The forecast for the remaining months – October through December – indicates nearly normal water conditions for much of the region with deficits in Finland, Estonia, southern Belarus, and a pocket in southern European Russia. Surpluses are forecast for Murmansk, Russia and regions to the east, and pockets in eastern England, Czech Republic, and between Madrid and Valencia in Spain.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
In early April, firefighters in Ukraine were deployed to battle a forest fire near the abandoned city of Pripyat in the 1,000 square mile “exclusion zone” around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The plant, officially closed since 2000, was the site of the world’s worst nuclear accident in April of 1986. A Facebook post by the head of Ukraine’s ecological inspection service reported elevated radiation levels in the fire area though local officials asserted otherwise. Likely the result of human carelessness, the fire was exacerbated by dry weather.

Fire struck Poland’s largest national park on Earth Day, April 22, destroying 6,000 hectares of Biebrza National Park. Illegal grass burning aided by drought conditions and high winds combined to claimed one-tenth of the wildlife wetland area.

Meteo-France reports that agricultural soils in the nation are the driest in five years, threatening the country’s wheat and barley crops. One village east of Paris hasn’t had measurable rainfall in 36 days.

Germany’s agricultural minister warns that the country may be facing its third consecutive year of drought, with some regions averaging just 20 percent of precipitation compared to last year from mid-March to the end of April.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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