South Asia: Intense water surplus to persist in Pakistan

South Asia: Intense water surplus to persist in Pakistan

24 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates that moderate to severe water surpluses will dominate much of India from Gujarat through Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and eastern Rajasthan into Uttar Pradesh in the Gangetic Plain and along the Ganges, connecting to the Padma River in Bangladesh. Surpluses will also reach south through Karnataka and east through Andhra Pradesh to the Indian Ocean. Transitional conditions are expected in India’s southern tip but pockets of surplus are forecast for Sri Lanka.

Surplus anomalies will be severe to exceptional in a path from Pune in Maharashtra leading southeast through central Karnataka, and in a pocket in central Rajasthan. Anomalies will also be intense in India’s Far North. Severe deficits are forecast for India’s Far Northeast.

Moderate surpluses are expected in northwestern Nepal, but surpluses will be intense down the center of the country along the Gandaki River, downgrading as it joins the Ganges in India.

Water conditions in much of southern Pakistan will be nearly normal, but extreme to exceptional surpluses will encompass much of the nation’s northern two-thirds. Similar surplus anomalies are expected in much of Afghanistan, encompassing the area from Kandahar to Kabul and tracing north across the Helmand and Upper Harirud Rivers to Mazar-e Sharif. Deficits are forecast Afghanistan’s far northeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

Though significant areas of surplus will persist in India through June, widespread anomalies observed across the breadth of the nation in prior months will shrink, leaving nearly normal conditions in the east. Intense surpluses will persist in the Far North and also along a path through western Maharashtra into Karnataka with some transitional pockets, before veering northeast into Andhra Pradesh. Surpluses will be exceptional at the turn in the path in Karnataka. Conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan will begin to transition (pink/purple), as will conditions in Sri Lanka. Severe surpluses will persist in much of the Gangetic Plain. Anomalies will be extreme along the Ganges through Uttar Pradesh, moderating to the east and through the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh. In Nepal, surpluses will remain widespread though exceptional anomalies will shrink.

Deficits reaching exceptional intensity will emerge in India’s Far Northeast, and deficits of lesser intensity will emerge nearby in eastern Bhutan. Deficits will also emerge in the southern tip of India in Kerala and northeastern Tamil Nadu, and in southwestern Sri Lanka.

Surpluses will remain widespread and intense in Pakistan’s northern two-thirds and in the bulk of eastern Afghanistan, retreating in the west. Moderate deficits will emerge in southeastern Pakistan.

From July through September, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in India in a vast area from Gujarat and Maharashtra in the west through the center of the nation and extending north well into Uttar Pradesh. Anomalies will be exceptional in a pocket surrounding Bhopal in Madhya Pradesh. Intense surpluses will continue to trace a path down the center of Karnataka, and primarily moderate surpluses will emerge in southern Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. Surpluses in India’s Far North will shrink and downgrade somewhat. Pockets of intense deficit are expected in the Far Northeast.

Relatively normal water conditions are forecast for Bangladesh and much of Nepal, though surpluses will persist in northwestern Nepal and along the Gandaki River. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat but will remain widespread. Areas of transitional are also forecast. Exceptional deficits will emerge in a pocket of north-central Baluchistan, Pakistan.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates primarily moderate surpluses increasing in India, covering much of the nation’s bulk. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge around Hyderabad, Pakistan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall has left many rivers in Pakistan running high. The Indus River System Authority reports higher than average flows along the Kabul, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers, describing conditions on the Kabul River in Nowshera east of Peshawar as “in high flood.” In mid-April, water levels at the Tarbela Dam on the Indus in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province were 90 feet higher than dead level, and nearly 157 feet higher at the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River.

Flooding on the Chenab River has destroyed hundreds of acres of fields in South Punjab, Pakistan.

The World Resources Institute estimates that the number of people worldwide affected by floods will double by 2030, and that India and Bangladesh will account for a significant number. Using its Aqueduct tool, WRI has calculated 44 percent of the world’s population affected by riverine floods will come from India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia; and, 58 percent affected by coastal floods. Recommended flood protection measures include investment in riverine dikes.

Flooding in eastern and northern Afghanistan over the last month has affected 7 million people, leaving 47 dead.

An extended dry season in Northeast India’s Assam State has created water shortages that challenge WHO hygiene guidelines for preventing the spread of COVID-19. Unable to pump water locally, residents rely on trucked water for daily needs, including more frequent hand-washing recommended during the pandemic.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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