Europe: Intense water surpluses persist in Ireland, deficits in Ukraine

24 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates exceptional water deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and pockets of Sweden and Norway. Deficits of varying intensity are expected from Belarus through Bulgaria, the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, and pockets of Italy and Central Europe.

Areas with a forecast of severe to exceptional deficit include, but are not limited to, western Ukraine, southern Moldova, eastern Bulgaria, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Belgium, and from Lisbon to Gibraltar. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for Romania, pockets in the Balkans, central and southwestern France, and central and southwestern Spain.

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Widespread surpluses are forecast for Ireland, the U.K., and Brittany and Normandy, France. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Wales, England, and Ireland. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include Jutland (Denmark); large pockets in southern Norway and northern Sweden; and isolated smaller pockets near Barcelona, Valencia, and Murcia (Spain), and in Central Europe.

In European Russia, widespread surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in the north along with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Deficits of varying intensity are expected from Moscow to the Caspian Sea.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through May indicates that surpluses will shrink in Central and Western Europe but will remain widespread in the U.K. and Ireland. Exceptional anomalies will persist in Ireland and Northern Ireland but anomalies in Great Britain will downgrade somewhat, with moderate to severe surpluses in England and Scotland and more intense conditions in Wales and north of Edinburgh. Surpluses in northern European Russia will remain widespread and intense but will retreat from St. Petersburg to Moscow. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include southern Norway, northern Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, northern France, and pockets in Central and Eastern Europe including Switzerland, central Slovakia, and north-central Romania.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_201912-202011_3mo_twitter.png

Exceptional deficits will shrink slightly in Finland, though remain widespread, and increase in Estonia and Latvia. Severe to exceptional deficits will emerge around Moscow and in southern Belarus and western Ukraine, and persist in Moldova and eastern Bulgaria. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Romania and pockets of the Balkans, but more intense deficits will continue in pockets of Italy. Deficits are expected to emerge in the western Iberian Peninsula while some pockets of surplus persist along Spain’s Mediterranean Coast. Deficits will increase in central France and emerge along France’s Mediterranean Coast.

From June through August, surpluses will diminish considerably, persisting in eastern England and pockets of northern Sweden and northern European Russia, with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) in Russia as transitions occur. Deficits will persist with intensity in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia; downgrade from Belarus through Bulgaria; increase from St. Petersburg to the Caspian Sea; and intensify in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. Deficits will also increase in France and Central Europe, transitioning from surplus in parts of the Alps, but deficits are expected to be primarily moderate.

The forecast for the remaining months – September through November – indicates nearly normal water conditions for much of the region with intense deficits lingering in Finland and Estonia, some moderate deficits in France and southern European Russia, and surpluses in eastern England and northern European Russia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The Met Office, the U.K.’s national weather service, reports that February 2020 was the U.K.’s wettest February on record. Storm Jorge, the last of three major storms to hit the region in the month, battered the region as well as Ireland, compounding flood damage from predecessors, Storms Ciara and Dennis. More than 3,300 properties flooded during Ciara and Dennis, and damages from Jorge’s arrival are still being assessed. Fifteen rivers in the Midlands, Yorkshire, and Lancashire recorded their highest levels ever. The U.K.’s national rail service was disrupted and flights were diverted from the Irish Republic to Northern Ireland. A few adventurous Irish souls were seen using jet skis to travel through floodwaters.

While the British Isles have been inundated with precipitation, drought is affecting other regions of Europe. It’s been an unusually dry, warm winter in Poland, according to the country’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, conditions that could lead to a summer drought the likes of which have not been seen in the last 50 years. Experts are predicting an unfavorable impact on the economy if low precipitation patterns persist, including the particularly unsavory outcome of a spike in food prices. Poor water policies could also contribute to economic downturn. To help prevent drought impacts in the agricultural sector, the government has allocated PLN 400 million (USD $104 million) for water management.

Ukraine’s agricultural industry is hoping for rain after a warm and dry winter prompted earlier than usual spring sowing. Soil moisture is worse this year, says the country’s deputy minister of development and trade, and about 11 percent of the winter grains are weak after a dry autumn.

Calling it “the winter that never arrived,” meteorologists across Northern Europe are noting the unusually warm temperatures and lack of snowfall in the region. Uppsala, Sweden saw its warmest winter in 300 years, and it was the warmest winter on record in southern and central Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. The Finnish Meteorological Society noted that the country had just experienced the first January-through-February period ever without any measurable snowfall in Helsinki.

In the French Alps, it was a no-snow Christmas at ski resorts in the region. No natural snowfall arrived, and for the first time ever conditions were too warm to produce artificial snow, forcing one desperate entrepreneur to have real snow flown in by helicopter from higher peaks.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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