Africa: Water surpluses will persist in East Africa

24 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates intense water deficits across northern Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Equatorial Guinea through western Gabon, a pocket in southwestern Namibia, southern Mozambique, Madagascar’s central west coast, and a pocket north of Mogadishu, Somalia.

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Deficits of generally lesser intensity are expected in Guinea Bissau, Cameroon, northwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northwestern and southeastern Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and south into several provinces in South Africa, and some pockets in Somaliland.

Intense surpluses are forecast in East Africa in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, with anomalies of generally lesser intensity spilling into Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zambia. Surplus anomalies are expected to be exceptional in western Kenya, on the Victoria Nile through Uganda, in pockets of Tanzania including Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar, and in northwestern Madagascar. Other areas of surplus include scattered pockets across the Sahel, and Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kinshasa Province in Democratic Republic of the Congo, west-central Angola, Namibia’s central coast, and a few pockets in South Africa.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates deficits of varying intensity across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. Deficits are also forecast for northwestern Ethiopia and Eritrea’s narrow panhandle, while deficits in the Horn of Africa are expected to retreat.

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Nations north of the Gulf of Guinea can expect surpluses of varying intensity as can southern Chad, northwestern Central African Republic, south-central Sudan leading into South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and segments of the Nile River in Sudan and South Sudan. Isolated small pockets of exceptional surplus are forecast near Benghazi, Libya and Alexandria, Egypt.

Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa and, while downgrading, will be severe to extreme in some areas, particularly Tanzania. Regions with a forecast of surplus include Tanzania, Burundi, east-central Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Uganda, and southwestern Ethiopia.

Deficits will moderate in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and northwestern DRC. Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or generally mild deficits, though moderate to severe deficits are forecast in South Africa northeast of Lesotho and in Swaziland. Some scattered pockets of surplus are also forecast in South Africa and neighboring nations, and in a pocket in western DRC and in west-central Angola. In Madagascar, surpluses will disappear and deficits will emerge, increasing and intensifying along the west coast.

From June through August, deficits will continue to be widespread across northern Africa but will shrink considerably from the continent’s westernmost tip through Niger. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast across the southern Sahara and nations north of the Gulf of Guinea. Surpluses are expected across the eastern Sahel and will emerge in Eritrea and much of Ethiopia. In East Africa, surpluses are expected to shrink and moderate overall though anomalies will be more intense in central Tanzania. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in Madagascar, moderate in South Africa near Swaziland, and persist in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and to the east along the northern border shared by Republic of the Congo and DRC.

The forecast for the final quarter – September through November – indicates persistent surpluses in East Africa, the eastern Sahel, and Ethiopia. Deficits across northern Africa will shrink considerably and downgrade.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in late February caused widespread flooding in Cairo, Egypt, and prompted authorities to close schools and universities from Alexandria to Aswan. As floodwaters inundated urban streets in the country’s capital, home to 20 million residents, many routes became impassible, traffic jams ensued, and several cars were submerged. Power cuts and internet disruption were also reported. The city has no drainage system, relying on mobile pumps. Though flooding events in the region are infrequent, heavy rains in October turned deadly, killing eight people.

Flooding continues to claim lives in East Africa. In Malawi, four people died after torrential rainfall at the end of February left the streets of Lilongwe covered in 1.5 meters (5 feet) of water. Earlier in the month, the death toll in Tanzania rose to 40 with 15,000 people displaced and 1,750 homes destroyed. In eastern Zambia the Zambian Air Force was deployed to evacuate flood victims in Lumezi District.

Persistent, widespread wet conditions have created favorable breeding grounds for the desert locust, and the recent infestation continues to threaten crops in the region. Containing the destruction will cost $138 million, according to the FAO, but donations are just short of 40 percent of that goal.

Drought has reduced the level of Zimbabwe’s largest dam, Karibe, to 10.42 percent usable storage as of 24 February, crippling power production. The nation’s power utility has announced a 19.02 percent increase in electricity tariffs effective at the beginning of March. After drought halved the corn harvest, over 40 percent of Zimbabweans simply don’t have enough food. With only a month’s supply of strategic reserves, the federal government will be forced to increase imports.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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