Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook November 2019

4 November 2019

OVERVIEW
Wetter than normal conditions are forecast for November stretching across much of India’s widest girth, with exceptional anomalies spanning the border of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Eastern Europe will be much warmer than normal as well as parts of the Balkans.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
India’s vast central bulk will be wetter than normal with exceptional anomalies in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, as mentioned. Pakistan, too, will see wet anomalies ranging from moderate to extreme. Northeastern Afghanistan will be moderately wetter than normal.

Nearly normal precipitation is forecast for Central Asia and Russia, with some moderate wet anomalies in eastern Tajikistan and in the Chersky Range of eastern Russia and the New Siberian Islands.

In East Asia, conditions in the western Tibetan Plateau will be wetter than normal. Taiwan and Japan are expected to be moderately drier than the norm. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast for southern Vietnam. Moderate to exceptional dry anomalies are forecast in pockets of Indonesia including southern Sumatra, Java, western Borneo, Sulawesi, and the Bird’s Head (Doberai) Peninsula of West Papua.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Australia will be moderately drier than normal in the east from Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland past Brisbane; in nearly all of South Australia; and the southern half of Western Australia. Anomalies may be severe in pockets of South Australia.

Europe will see wetter than normal conditions in France, northern Spain and northern Portugal, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, northern Italy, and a few small pockets in the Balkans. Anomalies will reach extreme intensity in southwestern France. Some pockets of moderate wet anomalies are forecast for Denmark and southern Norway into Sweden, while central Norway will be much drier than normal.

Around the Black Sea, Turkey’s northern shore will be drier than normal as will Georgia.

In Africa, conditions will be wetter than the norm in South Sudan and some pockets in nearby nations, and in Gabon and reaching into neighboring nations. Anomalies will be exceptional in northeastern South Sudan and western Gabon. Moderate dry anomalies are forecast for Western Sahara into western Algeria, northern Guinea, and Sierra Leone.

In the West, moderate to severe dry anomalies are expected in the U.S. Southern Rockies of Colorado and New Mexico, and moderate dry anomalies to the west in Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California. Moderate dry anomalies are also forecast for north-central Quebec, Canada, and in northern Ontario, while southern Alberta and northern British Columbia will be somewhat wetter than normal.

Northern Baja, Mexico will be moderately drier than the norm; moderate wet anomalies are forecast in the center of the country in Zacatecas and Jalisco, and in states along the southern Gulf of Mexico and into the Yucatan. Belize and Costa Rica will be moderately wetter than normal.

In South America, central and eastern Brazil will be moderately drier with some severe anomalies in southern Piauí and eastern Bahia. A pocket of western Ecuador will be much drier than normal. Wet anomalies ranging from moderate to severe, with some small pockets of extreme intensity, are forecast for: southern and northeastern Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Ecuador, northern and central Peru, Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, pockets of northern Argentina, and southern Chilean Patagonia.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Eastern Europe will be much warmer than normal as well as parts of the Balkans, with exceptionally hotter conditions in Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovia, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania, and across the Adriatic Sea into southern Italy. Central Europe can expect moderately to severely warmer than normal conditions; anomalies will reach north through the Baltics.

In Africa, warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in pockets across the northern part of the continent, around the Gulf of Guinea and the Horn of Africa, as well as parts of the south. Regions with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal conditions include: Madagascar, Djibouti, northern Somalia, Burundi and neighboring Rwanda, southeastern Algeria, the border of Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire, and Angola’s southwestern coast. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail in the center of Africa in South Sudan, Central African Republic, and nearby regions of neighboring nations. Anomalies will be exceptional in South Sudan.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for the Levant, west of the Euphrates in Iraq, and southern Turkey. Anomalies will be more intense in parts of the Arabian Peninsula, with exceptionally hotter temperatures in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and in Yemen’s western and eastern corners. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in southern Iran reaching inland from the Persian Gulf.

Central Asia and much of Russia can expect nearly normal temperatures, though moderate to extreme warm anomalies are forecast for Russia’s eastern regions north of the Sea of Okhotsk with exceptional anomalies in the New Siberian Islands.

India will be much warmer than normal from eastern and southern Maharastra to the Bay of Bengal and in the south, reaching through Sri Lanka as well. Regions with exceptional anomalies include Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and southern Karnataka. India’s far northeastern states will also be warmer than normal, as will Bangladesh. Southern Rajasthan and northern Gujarat will be cooler than the norm.

Warmer than normal conditions are forecast for nearly all of Southeast Asia with exceptional anomalies in Myanmar, western Thailand, and southern Cambodia. Primarily severe to extreme warm anomalies are expected in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and moderately warmer temperatures in Papua New Guinea.

Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for much of China, including exceptionally hotter conditions from Hubei through Jiangsu on the east coast, and in Inner Mongolia well into Mongolia’s southern half. Intense warm anomalies are forecast for the Korean Peninsula, and moderate to severe anomalies in Japan.

Eastern Australia will be warmer than normal from east of Canberra north through Sydney and into Queensland past Brisbane nearly to Rockhampton. Anomalies will be exceptional spreading west from Brisbane. Moderate anomalies are expected in the center of the country, and severe to exceptional warm anomalies in Western Australia.

In South America, Brazil’s eastern half will be warmer than normal with moderate to extreme anomalies; anomalies may reach exceptional intensity in northern Bahia. Severe warm anomalies will reach north through French Guiana. Generally moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in Colombia, through Ecuador, and following the Andes in Peru, southwestern Bolivia, northern Chile and northwestern Argentina. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected in northwestern Bolivia into Peru and pockets of northern Peru.

Central America and the Caribbean will be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas. In Mexico as well, exceptionally hotter than normal conditions are forecast around Nayarit on the central Pacific coast, and warm anomalies of lesser intensity in the Yucatan, and Baha.

The western U.S. will be warmer than normal with severe to extreme anomalies in California and the Southwest. Warm anomalies in the West will reach into southern British Columbia, Canada. Moderately cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for Eastern Newfoundland and Labrador and across its southern provincial border into Quebec. The Alaska Peninsula is forecast to be much warmer than normal as is northern Alaska.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released November 4, 2019 which includes forecasts for November 2019 through July 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued October 25 through October 31, 2019.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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