Australia & New Zealand: Intense water deficits forecast Brisbane to Melbourne

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2020 indicates exceptional water deficits in South Australia and the Lake Eyre drainage basin north into Northern Territory and western Queensland.

Exceptional deficits are also forecast across South Australia’s eastern border into New South Wales and the western Murray-Darling Basin. Moderate to exceptional deficits are expected in the vast eastern portion of the Basin and in Victoria. Moderate to severe deficits will reach into eastern Queensland from Brisbane north to Rockhampton.

ISciences_Australia_New_Zealand_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Tasmania can expect moderate to exceptional deficits. Intense deficits are forecast for the tip of Western Australia around Busselton and the Blackwood River region.

A pocket of intense surplus is forecast near the coast of central West Australia north of Esperance.

Nearly normal conditions are expected in New Zealand, with some areas of moderate deficit near Dunedin on South Island and eastern and northern North Island. Extreme deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that a vast expanse of exceptional deficit in the center of the Western Plateau in Australia will downgrade to merely mild or moderate anomalies, though the extent of exceptional deficits will increase between the Hamersley Range and the Gibson Desert in Western Australia (WA). In WA’s southwestern tip, intense deficits will persist. Deficits in eastern Australia will downgrade from exceptional to primarily severe to extreme from west of Melbourne, through Canberra, to Brisbane in Queensland (QLD). Moderate deficits are forecast for South Australia (SA), western Victoria (VIC), and western New South Wales (NSW). A pocket of surplus will persist between Townsville and Rockhampton along the northern coast of QLD and along the central coast of WA north of Esperance.

ISciences_Australia_New_Zealand_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.

From January through March 2020, conditions will normalize in much of Australia and New Zealand. Deficits in southeastern Australia will shrink and downgrade leaving moderate to severe deficits in VIC, the southeastern Murray-Darling Basin in NSW, and Tasmania. Intense deficits will persist, however, in the tip of WA.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2020 – indicates mild deficits or normal conditions overall in the region.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 24 October 2019]
Hundreds of dead bats are turning up in Gold Coast, one jewel in the crown of Queensland’s tourism industry, victims of drought. One wildlife volunteer says the region has never seen a bat die-off of the current scale, with emaciated bats littering some areas. The bats, like canaries in a coal mine, are one sign of the severity and persistence of drought in the region. Two-thirds of Queensland and all of New South Wales have been declared drought-stricken, and the Bureau of Meteorology predicts below-average rainfall in much of the east for the rest of the year. In the interconnected ecosystem, the bats play an important role in pollinating eucalyptus trees, popular dinner fare for koalas.

In the southern Queensland town of Warwick, summer travelers were greeted with a lighted road sign flashing water restrictions in effect - “100 litres per person per day.” Other communities in the region, like Stanthorpe, are calculating when their “day zero,” the day they run out of drinking water, might arrive.

Inflows into the Macquarie River in New South Wales were at historic lows in mid-September, and the massive Burrendong Dam that provides water for at least five surrounding communities was at 4.5 percent capacity.

With rivers and dams drying up, Australia is no stranger to “water wars” - disputes over shared resources - but now groundwater is becoming part of that battleground, pitting agricultural conglomerates against local farmers.

Though recycled waste water could be considered an option for Australia’s dry towns, there is considerable resistance. Queensland’s recycled water facility near Brisbane has capacity to add an extra 180 million liters a day to the supply but has never been completed turned on. Perth’s system is the country’s only operational scheme, adding 14 billion liters of recycled water to the city’s aquifers every year, and capacity should double next year.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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