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Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Gradual transition from water surplus to deficit

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Gradual transition from water surplus to deficit

The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread water surpluses and towards the gradual emergence of deficits. Exceptional deficits in western Cambodia are expected to persist through February or longer, but should diminish in extent after November. From September through November moderate deficits will begin to emerge in Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, southern Sumatra, and Java, and thereafter in Borneo and Sulawesi.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Deficits to emerge on Java; surpluses Vietnam, Malay Peninsula

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Deficits to emerge on Java; surpluses Vietnam, Malay Peninsula

From April through June water deficits are forecast to emerge on Java, southern Sumatra, and southern Borneo, but will recede in Cambodia except for a pocket of exceptional deficits northeast of Tonlé Sap. Surpluses are forecast for central Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, northeast Borneo, and Mindanao. After June, deficits are forecast for most of the region, with severe to exceptional deficits in Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Mindanao.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses in Laos, Vietnam, & Malay Peninsula

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses in Laos, Vietnam, & Malay Peninsula

Water surpluses are forecast for Laos, central Vietnam, and the Malay Peninsula through March. Exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia near Tonlé Sap Lake during this period. After March, a transition to water deficits in parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea is forecast, and deficits will continue to emerge through September.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2017

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2017

Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2016 through September 2017 include: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, eastern Brazil, Scandinavia, Arctic Russia, northern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and southern India. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Idaho, northeastern Nevada, and northwestern Utah, southern Mediterranean Spain, western European Russia, eastern Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Vietnam, and Jiangsu, China. This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 January 2017.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits persist in Cambodia, surpluses in Laos & Vietnam

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits persist in Cambodia, surpluses in Laos & Vietnam

Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through February, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia through May. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist through February in Laos and in central Vietnam through May. Surpluses of lesser severity are forecast for the next three months in the southern Malay Peninsula, Java, southern Vietnam, and Gorontalo, Indonesia.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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