The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Water deficits are forecast to persist in many parts of the Middle East – particularly the Arabian Peninsula – though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish. Through September deficits in Qatar and United Arab Emirates are forecast to become more severe, exceptional deficits in central Iran will increase in extent, and deficits will continue to emerge in Iran’s southwestern provinces.
Water deficits are forecast to persist in many parts of the Middle East through February – particularly the Arabian Peninsula – though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish. Cyprus is forecast to transition out of exceptional deficit after May, while deficits in Qatar and United Arab Emirates may become more severe for the next six months. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits across southern Turkey are expected to linger through November before diminishing in severity.
Water deficits are forecast in southern Turkey, Cyprus, Gaza, West Bank, Israel, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are expected to persist along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Exceptional deficits will emerge in May in Qatar and United Arab Emirates, persisting with varying extent and severity through October.
The water forecast includes a variety of conditions in the Mideast, though water deficits remain the dominate factor. Deficits are forecast across southern Turkey, Cyprus, much of Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and western Oman. Deficits of varying severity are forecast across Saudi Arabia and in Yemen as well, but both deficits and surpluses are predicted in some areas. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast for southern Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula, with severe to exceptional deficits forecast to encompass Yemen and western Oman. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey. Later in the forecast moderate water deficits in the United Arab Emirates may become exceptional.
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