South America: Amazon, Southern Cone to observe continued deficits

South America: Amazon, Southern Cone to observe continued deficits

20 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in South America will mostly dissipate, though some anomalies will remain in regions of Brazil and the Southern Cone. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Western Brazil, appearing in northern, western, southern, and northeastern regions of the state of Amazonas. Exceptional deficits are also expected across the state of Rondonia.

  • Southern Brazil, throughout the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. Exceptional deficits are also present in the eastern state of Tocantins. 

  • Pockets of northern Peru, particularly in areas of the Maynas Province. These deficits continue into southern and eastern Ecuador, as well as coastal regions of northwestern Ecuador and southwestern Colombia. 

  • Central Chile, near the city of Santiago, as well as near the Los Flamencos National Reserve. 

  • Paraguay, with the most intense anomalies appearing near the country’s northern border. Argentina can also expect exceptional deficits in the Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Peru, in the Madre de Dios region. 

  • Northern Bolivia, in areas near the Manuripi National Amazon Wildlife Reserve.

  • Northern coastal regions of the Guianas, particularly in northeastern Suriname and northwestern French Guiana. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will cover much of the northern Bolivarian Nations, western Brazil, and the Guianas. The most intense anomalies are expected in central to eastern Colombia, Suriname, French Guiana, southern Venezuela, and the Brazilian state of Amazonas. Moderate surpluses are anticipated in north-central Ecuador and central to southeastern Peru. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur in regions of Brazil’s Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in eastern Paraguay. 

From May through July 2025, widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in Amazonas are expected to downgrade in severity, becoming mostly moderate surpluses. These surpluses continue into eastern Colombia and in northeastern coastal regions of Venezuela, as well as northern Guyana. Severe to exceptional deficits may continue in central and south-central Brazil. Portions of the Guianas and Argentina’s Buenos Aires provinces are expected to observe moderate deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits may emerge across Ecuador, southwestern to north-central Colombia, and in western to southeastern Venezuela. Central French Guiana and isolated areas of central and south-central Brazil may experience severe to extreme deficits. Isolated pockets of moderate to severe surplus may occur in areas along the northern border of Argentina and southern border of Bolivia. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Brazil and Argentina, January drought and heatwaves severely impacted crop production as the regions saw temperatures up to 104°F. Due to the warm conditions, the USDA’s outlook for Argentina’s agricultural production estimate has been cut by 1 million metric tons for corn crops and 3 million for soybean crops. Brazil’s corn production estimate was reduced by 1 million metric tons due to these conditions. The 2024–2025 soybean harvest in Brazil is 15% complete, and second-crop corn planting is significantly behind schedule, raising concerns about meeting ideal planting windows.

As the Amazon experienced extreme drought in 2024, the dry conditions highlighted a longstanding issue for water and sanitation accessibility for nearby Indigenous communities. These communities experienced disproportionately limited access to these resources, with only a third of households having proper water systems. These conditions also contribute to a worsened spread of diseases, such as malaria. Indigenous groups have called for improvement of infrastructure, including water tanks, wells, and septic systems. The Brazilian government has relevant resources and plans to begin addressing these challenges.

In the past year, the global price of arabica coffee has more than doubled, surpassing $4 per pound for the first time, as well as increasing 25% since early 2025. Climate change is the main catalyst for the price increase, which has disrupted coffee production due to extreme weather in growing areas, such as Brazil. “Expect retail coffee prices to keep grinding higher,” Bank of America analysts recently warned, even with “consumers showing signs of price fatigue.” Brazil has been contending with its most severe drought in 70 years, causing water shortages and crop failures.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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