Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

20 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits across Africa will downgrade in size, but remain in pockets of northwestern, central, and south-central regions of the continent. Surpluses are expected to continue along the Sahel. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Northern Mauritania, in eastern areas of the F’Deirick region, continuing east into northern Mali, and north into much of Algeria. These deficits continue into several pockets across Western Sahara and western coastal Morocco. Western, central, and northeastern Libya can also anticipate pockets of exceptional deficits. 

  • Sierra Leone, in much of the country. These deficits continue along the Gulf of Guinea into Liberia, southern coastal Ivory Coast, Ghana, Benin, Togo, and southern Nigeria.  

  • Southern to southeastern Cameroon, continuing into regions along the northern border of the Republic of Congo and the southern border of the Central African Republic. Northern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo can expect widespread deficits, as well as southeastern regions of the country in the Kasai-Oriental Province. 

  • West-central Tanzania, central to northern Zambia, northern and southern Mozambique, and southern to southeastern Angola. 

  • Madagascar, in eastern coastal regions of the country. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Much of western and southern Mali, Burkina Faso, and along the northern border of Nigeria and southern border of Niger. 

  • The majority of central to southern Chad, southwestern Sudan, western to northern Ethiopia, and northwestern South Sudan. 

  • Eastern Botswana, southwestern Zimbabwe, and northeastern South Africa. 

  • Northwestern Angola, near the city of Luanda. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that surpluses along the Sahel will continue, with the most intense anomalies occurring in Senegal, southwestern Mali, northwestern Nigeria, southern to central Chad, and southwestern Sudan. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in eastern Botswana, northeastern South Africa, and southwestern Zimbabwe. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected throughout central to northern Democratic Republic of Congo, northern Republic of Congo, and south-central Cameroon. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are also anticipated in south-central Nigeria, Benin, south-central Angola, and eastern coastal Madagascar. Transitional conditions are expected in much of Sierra Leone, northern Nigeria, southern Niger, central to northwestern Chad, and portions of western Sudan. 

From May through July 2025, surpluses in the Sahel are expected to remain, as well as expand further east, spreading throughout much of southern Sudan, South Sudan, and western Ethiopia. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in eastern Botswana, southwestern Zimbabwe, and northeastern South Africa. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in southern coastal regions of Liberia and Ivory Coast, central and west-central Algeria, and central Libya.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – anticipates that surpluses will remain widespread throughout the Sahel. Severe to extreme surpluses are also expected in eastern Botswana, northeastern South Africa, and southwestern Zimbabwe. Exceptional deficits are expected to increase in size in central and southern Algeria, continuing south into northern Mali and central Libya. Exceptional deficits are also expected to emerge in southern Sierra Leone and span across coastal regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea, spreading east into southern coastal Nigeria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Somalia’s drought crisis worsens, millions are still in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. From October to December 2024, many regions of the country saw severely low levels of rainfall. These conditions are expected to be further exacerbated as forecasts indicate low precipitation levels and high temperatures from April to June 2025. Currently, 4.4 million people are experiencing acute food insecurity, and 1.6 million children are expected to suffer from malnutrition by July 2025. Despite humanitarian efforts, which included $10 million in aid from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund and the Central Emergency Response Fund, resources remain insufficient. Aid agencies are still in need of international support to prevent a full-scale catastrophe. 

Children in southern Africa continue to be affected by food insecurity as the region continues to experience repercussions of its worst drought in 100 years. The majority of the rural population across southern Africa survives on agriculture, which has been devastated by extreme droughts and flooding brought on by the El Niño weather cycle over the last 3 years. Not only have their crops failed to thrive leaving little to harvest, but food has become scarce and more expensive, as the cost of maize and cooking oil has doubled in the last year. It is estimated that 21 million children in the region are suffering from malnutrition. 

In Nigeria, the Shonga community in the state of Kwara experienced an unusual flood, which caused one death and submerged 3,000 hectares of rice farmland. The flooding occurred during the region’s dry season, causing concern and shock among locals. The Kwara Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL) team conducted an assessment and confirmed the devastation. Over 5,000 farmers were affected, which has also heightened fears of food insecurity for the region.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.