United States: Deficits persist in SW states

United States: Deficits persist in SW states

20 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will continue in several southwestern states, with moderate to severe surpluses enduring in pockets of the Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Alaska. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Southern California, spanning regions near the Los Padres National Forest to the city of San Diego. These deficits are also present in portions of southwestern Nevada and throughout Arizona. 

  • Regions along the border of southeastern Idaho and western Wyoming.

  • Coastal areas of the Northeast, particularly in eastern coastal Maine and Massachusetts, eastern Long Island, and areas along the border of eastern New York and western Vermont. 

  • Eastern coastal regions of North and South Carolina. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • East-central Washington, near the Colville Reservation. 

  • Central to eastern Oregon, widespread throughout the regions. 

  • Florida, along western, eastern, and southern coastal regions of the state. 

  • Isolated pockets across northern Texas, south-central Missouri, and northern Arkansas.  

  • Alaska, widespread throughout central and northern areas of the state, as well as in the Seward Peninsula. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will be present in much of southern, central, and eastern Arizona, as well as western New Mexico. These deficits continue north in pockets across central Utah, central Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, and western Montana. Southeastern Texas will also observe exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to emerge across a significant portion of east-central and northeastern states, including Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in central to southern Florida, eastern Oregon, and in much of Alaska. 

From May through July 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to dissipate in most western and southern states. Exceptional deficits will remain in southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Severe to extreme surpluses will occur in east-central Oregon, east-central Washington, and in central to northern regions of Alaska. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in much of Louisiana, eastern Texas, and western Mississippi. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – anticipates moderate to severe surpluses to remain in east-central Oregon, as well as northern and central Alaska. Transitional conditions may arise in east-central Washington. Most central and eastern states will observe deficits ranging from abnormal to moderate. Regions of Louisiana and Mississippi may observe severe deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A severe weather system brought deadly flooding to parts of the Southeast on February 15th, causing at least 10 deaths and ravaging many states, including Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Nine deaths occurred in Kentucky, which received up to 6 inches of rain, prompting Governor Andy Beshear to declare a state of emergency. An estimate of 1,000 people were rescued from floodwaters, and hundreds of thousands were without power. 

Severe flooding hit coalfields in southern West Virginia over the weekend of February 16th, causing one death and intensive damage to the region. Locals stated that the damage caused by the storm was “unlike any seen in the coalfields region in the last 20 years.” “They’ve experienced major flooding levels, which is something we haven’t seen before in a very long time,” said Governor Patrick Morrisey. The governor declared a state of emergency in multiple counties as the storm left thousands without power amidst potential freezing conditions.  

Despite being hit by an atmospheric storm earlier this month, southern California continues to experience drought and risk of vegetation fires. “We haven’t received enough rain to get us out of those conditions,” said Mike Cornette, the Fire Captain of Cal Fire San Diego County. He stated that it takes several long, sustained periods of rain to dramatically improve the moisture level of fuel beds. “The problem with the rain is when it comes super quick it doesn’t absorb into the ground.” 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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