South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh

23 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • North-central India, within the states of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. 

  • Eastern India, throughout the states of Jharkhand and West Bengal. These surpluses continue east into much of southern Bangladesh. 

  • Western India, in northeastern coastal regions of Gujarat.  

  • Southern Pakistan, near the city of Karachi. 

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in: 

  • North India, in isolated pockets within the state of Himachal Pradesh. 

  • Southwestern Pakistan, appearing in regions surrounding Hanna Lake. 

  • Southwestern and northern Afghanistan, within the Nimruz Province, and in northern areas of the Badakhshan Province along the border of Tajikistan. 

  • Easternmost India, spreading through the states of Assam, Meghalaya, and Nagaland. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2025 predicts that severe to extreme surpluses will endure in several regions of Indian states, including Jharkhand, eastern Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana. Surpluses of similar intensity will persist in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. Some regions will also be affected by transitional conditions, including Gujarat, southern Rajasthan, and southern Uttar Pradesh. Central to eastern Nepal should anticipate severe to exceptional surpluses. Small pockets of severe to extreme deficits are expected in northern India within the state of Himachal Pradesh. 

From March through May 2025, severe to extreme surpluses will persist in the states of Jharkhand and eastern Rajasthan, as well as in areas of Punjab and Haryana. Further south, severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and portions of Andhra Pradesh. Transitional conditions will continue in coastal regions of Gujarat, with exceptional deficits appearing along the state’s northwestern coast. 

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will remain in central and eastern India, as well as southern Bangladesh. Much of western to central Bhutan will observe an emergence of moderate to severe deficits. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Cyclone Gendal devastated regions of southern India, causing 19 casualties – 16 in Sri Lanka and 3 in India. The city of Puducherry recorded its highest rainfall in 30 years, which prompted the army to rescue almost 200 people using boats. Tamil Nadu faced unprecedented rainfall, as rain levels exceeded 40 centimeters in many areas. The deluge left major transport links submerged and halted train services. In Sri Lanka, more than 139,000 families were affected.

After recent flooding in West Bengal, India killed 26 people and displaced 250,000, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee stated that authorities in nearby Jharkhand worsened the crisis by releasing dam water. The Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC), which manages the dams, stated it had to release water to prevent dam damage, but reduced outflows afterwards as rainfall eased. Some villages like Ghatal were heavily impacted, in whi ch residents relied on boats for transportation. 

A new report stated that more than 60% of India's districts are highly vulnerable to floods and droughts, with over 85% of the districts residing in Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Uttarakhand. “We have calculated climate risks by taking into account natural hazards like flood and drought, people’s exposure and their socio-economic vulnerability. The report tells how much and where the resources are to be allocated,” stated Anamika Barua, a researcher from Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati, and one of the lead authors of the report. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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