Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries

23 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Central to southern Saudi Arabia, with the most intense anomalies appearing near the Al Muwiyah, Al Sulayyil, and Al Udeid regions. 

  • Yemen and Oman, widespread throughout both countries. 

  • Iran, within the Fars, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces. 

  • Western coastal regions of Turkey near the city of İzmir.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in areas south of the city of Jeddah, continuing along the coast into the western coast of Yemen. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will diminish in Saudi Arabia, but will continue in much of southern Yemen and central Oman. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to remain in southwestern coastal regions of Saudi Arabia and western Yemen. Isolated severe deficit anomalies will appear in northern Jordan and northern coastal regions of Iran bordering the Caspian Sea. 

From March through May 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to linger in Yemen and Oman. Small, isolated pockets of moderate to severe surplus will occur in Saudi Arabia in regions south of the city of Jeddah. Most other Middle Eastern countries will observe primarily near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – exceptional deficits in Yemen and Oman are expected to dissipate. Severe to extreme deficits may emerge in central Saudi Arabia, as well as in isolated regions of northern Turkey, southern Iraq, and Iran. Severe surpluses are expected to continue along the southwestern coast of Saudi Arabia into the western coast of Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
COP16, a U.N. sponsored climate conference that took place in Riyadh, ended without an agreement on response to climate change-induced droughts. The 197 participating nations were unable to agree on methods to fund early warning systems and weather-resilient infrastructure, specifically for vulnerable regions like Africa. Additionally, a recent U.N. report warns that nearly five billion people could potentially face drought by the century's end, as well as global food security.

Farmers in Saudi Arabia are implementing innovative irrigation technologies in response to water shortages and the effect of climate change in local agriculture. One local farmer, Mohamed Alnwairan, recently replaced his rice crops with limes, which require less water. This technology uses sensors and a smartphone app to assist in water delivery, ultimately reducing consumption by up to 70% and increasing crop yields.

Saudi Arabia recently halted a $317 million desalination project citing administrative issues as the reason for cancellation. The project planned to construct a reverse osmosis desalination plant which would generate 300 million liters per day. As Saudi Arabia lacks rivers, and regular precipitation, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on desalination facilities for water supplies for communities that otherwise would not survive.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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