South America: Deficits continue in Amazon, Bolivarian Nations

South America: Deficits continue in amazon, Bolivarian Nations

26 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist throughout several regions of Brazil, as well as portions of the Bolivarian Nations. Isolated pockets of surplus will emerge in northern South American countries. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following countries: 

  • Western Brazil, widespread throughout the state of Amazonas, Rondônia, and Para. Deficits of similar intensity are expected in southern regions of the country, throughout the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso de Sul, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. 

  • Northern coastal regions of French Guiana. 

  • Central to eastern Peru, throughout the Requena and Ucayali regions. 

  • Southern and eastern Bolivia, appearing in areas near the cities of Sucra and Santa Cruz de la Sierra. 

  • Northwestern Argentina, appearing in pockets across the San Juan, La Rioja, Catamarca, Salta, and Jujuy provinces. 

Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in: 

  • The Guianas, in central regions of Guyana and Suriname. 

  • Central Venezuela, within the Amazonas region. 

  • Southern Brazil, within the state of Santa Catarina.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to persist throughout eastern and southeastern Peru, as well as significant portions of western and central Brazil. These anomalies are also expected to occur along Brazil’s northeastern coast. These exceptional deficits continue south into northern and pockets of southern Bolivia. Northern Chile and northwestern Argentina is expected to observe pockets of exceptional deficits, as are regions along the border of northwestern Uruguay and southwestern portions of the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul.

From November through January 2025, widespread exceptional deficits are expected to resolve in most South American countries. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits may continue in eastern Peru, as well as western to central Brazil. Some pockets of moderate deficits may manifest in northern coastal regions of the Guianas.

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, expects deficits in western and central regions of South America to dissipate. Moderate surpluses may emerge in northern areas of Brazil and in western Venezuela.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Brazilian state of Acre is enduring one of its worst droughts in history. In July, the Acre River measured at 5.1 feet, its lowest level in 5 years. The state suffered a similarly intense drought in 2023, in which 56% of the Amazon’s municipalities were affected. However, this year’s is estimated to be more severe, as it has already affected 69%. Authorities have installed water tanks in some rural communities, but supplies remain insufficient. 

During the week of August 19th, personnel temporarily captured 20 rare freshwater dolphins in the Amazon to study their health and avoid a repeat of last year’s hundreds of drought-induced deaths of the mammals. The team administered blood tests and other examinations, after which they were promptly returned to the Lake Tefé basin The dolphins were also microchipped to monitor their behavior. 

In Northern Brazil, officials recently recommended that hydropower generated from River Madeira be limited, as water levels are dangerously low with a depth of 10 feet being recorded on July 20th. River Madeira powers two of Brazil’s biggest hydroelectric plants, Santo Antonio and Jirau. In Brazil, hydroelectricity is the main source of power, as it accounts for over 60% of capacity. The Electric Sector Monitoring Committee suggested using thermal energy sources, as well as importing electricity from Paraguay and Uruguay.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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