Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus spreads throughout Yucatan Peninsula

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus spreads throughout Yucatan Peninsula

26 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in central to southern regions of Mexico, while surpluses will emerge in eastern portions of the country, as well as throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Exceptional deficit is anticipated in central regions of Central America, with surplus emerging in southern coastal regions of the area. 

Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in:

  • Central to southern Mexico, spreading through the states of Jalisco, Michoacan, and Veracruz. 

  • Guatemala, throughout central regions of the country. 

  • Honduras, appearing in western regions near the city of San Pedro Sula and in eastern regions near the city of Tocoa. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Eastern and southern Mexico, spreading across coastal regions of the state of Tamaulipas and throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. 

  • Guatemala, in southern coastal regions of the country. 

  • El Salvador, covering most of the country. 

  • Western to central Nicaragua, with surpluses covering all areas surrounding Lake Nicaragua. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 predicts intense deficits to vanish from central to southern Mexico. Small pockets of moderate to severe deficits may persist in northwestern Mexico within the state of Sonora. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to persist throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in portions of several Central American countries, including southern and northern Guatemala, east-central Honduras, and western Nicaragua. 

From November through January 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to dissipate in regions of Central America. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain widespread throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will remain widespread throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Exceptional deficits are expected to appear in western coastal regions of central Mexico. The remaining portions of the region are expected to observe near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Farmers in Guatemala's “Dry Corridor” have started to implement new farming techniques in order to combat drought and the country’s worsening food crisis. As the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations recently reported that over 73% of households in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras were experiencing food scarcity, locals adopted the K'uxu'rum agricultural system. This system improves crop yields and enables farmers to adapt to climate extremes by lessening the use of control-burning, allowing natural regeneration of trees, and properly managing pruning and soil cover. The K'uxu'rum system also combines the cultivation of corn, beans and madre cacao trees. “This system has generated positive results for regions in Honduras and Guatemala," says Julio López Payés, Guatemalan director of the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center. 

Recent heavy rain in the state of Michoacan caused part of a 1,000 year old pyramid to collapse. According to Mexico's National Institute of Anthropology and History, the pyramid was part of a seat of power in a site known as Ihuatzio. High temperatures and drought also contributed to the conditions which catalyzed the collapse, as they caused cracks to form in the structure and absorb water. The National Institute of Anthropology and History is currently assessing the damage and repairing the structure.

Due to continuous drought and lack of consistent water delivery, many residents of Mexico City are collecting rainwater to survive. In lower-income areas like Iztapalapa, which is also Mexico City’s most populous borough, groups of women are harvesting water, as well as maintaining supply systems. Locals said before the harvesting system, they endured water shortages, rationing, and consistently dirty public water. “It should be easy to maintain, but it’s tedious,” said one worker. “Unfortunately, we find ourselves in a scenario in which we not only have environmental problems, but economic problems.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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