ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List August 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST August 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2024 and running through April 2025 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List August 15, 2024 (pdf).

United States: Widespread surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are expected to linger in non-contiguous states until April 2025 or longer. 

Canada: Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to continue in the Prairie Provinces until April 2025 or longer. 

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The Yucatan Peninsula is expected to observe moderate to severe surpluses until April 2025 or longer. 

South America: Regions of the Amazon will observe pockets of exceptional deficit throughout Brazil and the Bolivarian Nations until October 2024. 

Europe: Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to linger in regions of France, Spain, and Denmark until October 2024, as will extreme to exceptional deficits in eastern Europe until October 2024. 

Africa: Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are expected to emerge along the Sahel until April 2025 or longer. 

Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq are expected to observe exceptional deficits until October 2024. 

Central Asia and Russia: Severe to extreme surpluses may endure in southwestern Russia and regions of Kazakhstan until April 2025 or longer. 

South Asia: Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity are expected to persist in southern India until April 2025 or longer. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Western Indonesia and Malaysia will observe pockets of exceptional deficits along coastal regions until October 2024. 

East Asia: Pockets of exceptional deficits are anticipated to persist in isolated regions of northwestern China until January 2025.

Australia & New Zealand: Extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia are expected to change into transitional conditions, enduring until October 2024. 

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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