Africa: NW, C Africa to experience persisting deficits

Africa: NW, C Africa to experience persisting deficits

23 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 anticipates that widespread exceptional deficits will resolve in some north-central and southern areas, but remain widespread in northwestern and central portions of the continent. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Throughout the majority of Algeria, Libya, and northern coastal regions of Egypt along the Mediterranean Sea. Nearby, northeastern portions of Sudan can expect deficits of similar intensity. 

  • South-central to easternmost regions of Mauritania, with anomalies continuing into most of northern to southern Mali and northern Niger. 

  • Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, appearing in pockets across the three countries. 

  • Nigeria, widespread throughout southern and central portions of the country. These deficits continue into Cameroon, covering much of the country, as well as Gabon, Republic of the Congo, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, 

  • Zambia, appearing in pockets across southwestern to central sections of the country. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Southeastern Tanzania, with the most intense concentrations appearing in eastern coastal regions of the Lindi Region. Anomalies continue north, appearing in regions of Kenya and Uganda, near Lake Victoria. 

  • Northeastern Nigeria, near the city of Maiduguri, continuing across central Chad and southern regions of Sudan. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that while most exceptional deficits in central Africa will dissipate, exceptional deficits will continue in pockets across Algeria, western Libya, northern Mali, and northern Niger. Exceptional deficits are expected to arise in southern areas of the Republic of Congo, central Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, and Gabon. Further south, pockets of exceptional deficits will continue in south-central Angola, Zambia, central Botswana, Lesotho, and southeastern South Africa. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity will arise in central to southern Chad and southern Sudan. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will arise across much of Tanzania, with some anomalies spreading into northern regions of Zambia and Mozambique. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity will appear in northern Angola and northernmost portions of Madagascar. 

From October through December 2024, most anomalies of severe intensity or higher throughout Africa are expected to resolve. Some moderate to severe surpluses are expected to endure in northeastern Nigeria, southern to central Chad, southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania. Isolated instances of severe to extreme deficits are expected to appear in central and southern Algeria, as well as northern Gabon. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – near-normal and abnormal anomalies are expected to cover the majority of the continent, though moderate to severe surpluses are expected to persist in Nigeria, Chad, and southern Sudan. These surpluses continue south into Uganda, Tanzania, and northern Mozambique.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Morocco is currently experiencing its sixth consecutive year of drought, causing unemployment levels to reach new highs, specifically in the agricultural sector. According to the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture, only 2.5 million hectares of cultivated area remains, compared to the four million present before it was destroyed by drought. Agricultural sector expert Abdel Rahim Handouf stated that the unemployment rate, which rose to 13.7 in Q1 2024 from 12.9 in Q1 2023, is linked to fluctuations in climate. This increase followed the loss of nearly 159,000 jobs in rural areas, reported Handouf. 

In Tunisia, the Minister of Agriculture, Abdel Moneim Balati, announced a plan to invest in artificial rain technology to compensate for the country’s drought and water shortages. As of July 10th, the percentage of water stored in Tunisia’s dams totaled 29 percent of their capacity. Balati also stated that "the rise in temperatures has caused the loss of 600,000 cubic meters of dam water during the past period, which evaporated." Tunisian officials are planning to experiment with artificial rain over small lakes, noting that a committee of experts have been designated to combat the drought crisis, similar to approaches taken by nearby countries suffering from drought. Tunisia, which is ranked the 33rd most water-stressed country in the world, is currently experiencing its sixth year of drought. 

Maamba Collieries announced plans to build a 300 megawatt power plant in Zambia in an effort to offset the country’s loss of hydropower amid devastating drought. The plant will be powered by coal and is estimated to cost $400 million over a two-year period beginning in August 2024. Zambia has been importing electricity since drought hit, which is considered to be the worst drought the country has seen in 40 years. Authorities have also ordered daily power cuts for citizens, which last a minimum of 12 hours.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.