East Asia: Deficits persist in S, NW China

East Asia: Deficits persist in S, NW China

21 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern and southern China. Pockets of severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in southwestern to central China, as well as isolated regions of southeastern and northeastern China. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Northwestern China, covering much of western Inner Mongolia and eastern Xinjiang. 

  • Southern China, spreading throughout Yunnan. 

  • Western China, with isolated pockets of deficits spread through the Ngari Prefecture in Tibet. 

  • Northeastern China, in the Hebei province. 

  • Southwestern Mongolia, in southernmost regions of the Govi-Altai subdivision. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • West-central to central China, spread throughout eastern Qinghai and northwestern to eastern Tibet.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that northwestern China will observe exceptional deficits shrinking in size, but enduring in pockets of western Inner Mongolia and eastern Xinjiang. Exceptional deficits will also continue in western Tibet, in areas of the Ngari Prefecture. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected in isolated regions of northwestern and southeastern Tibet. Moderate surpluses are expected to linger throughout the Sichuan province in southern China, as well as portions of northeastern China, including peninsular Shandong and northeastern Heilongjiang. 

From October through December 2024, exceptional deficits in northwestern China are expected to resolve. Some moderate to severe surpluses will persist in the area, as will severe to exceptional deficits in western Tibet. Surpluses will also remain in peninsular Shandong and northeastern Heilongjiang. The majority of the remaining regions will observe near-normal conditions to abnormal anomalies. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – anticipates near-normal to abnormal anomalies to continue throughout most portions of the country. Pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit are expected to remain in western regions of Tibet. Some pockets of moderate to severe surplus are expected to continue in northeastern China.   

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On July 18th, additional teams from China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief were dispatched to northwestern Shaanxi to aid in relief efforts after rainbands affected the Sichuan Basin. Teams were equipped with rubber boats and drainage pumps to assist in rescue and restorative efforts. Additionally, the National Disaster Reduction Commission allocated 55,000 other relief supplies, such as folding beds, emergency kits , and bedding to deluged areas.

In the Hunan province, intense rainfall caused flooding after the embankment in Dongting Lake burst, prompting 7,000 residents to evacuate. The week prior, rainfall in the region had more than doubled the surface area of Dongting Lake, China’s second-largest freshwater lake. Hunan’s vice-governor Zhang Yingchun cited faulty infrastructure as a factor, stating that an emergency barrier in the embankment had failed less than two hours after it was set up to contain a separate water release.

China's weather bureau anticipates that the heatwave forecast in eastern, central, and southern regions may diminish production of rice and cotton. The China Meteorological Administration CMA reportedly expects temperatures to remain high, causing a second consecutive summer of intense heat. "It is necessary to guard against the risk of yield reduction of cotton, early rice and late rice caused by high temperature and heat damage," said Jia Xiaolong, CMA's deputy director. Temperatures in several provinces, including Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Gansu, and Ningxia are expected 1.8 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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