Australia & New Zealand: Surplus anticipated in SE, N Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus anticipated in SE, N Australia

21 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that intense surplus will persist in northern Australia and expand across southeastern regions of the country. Deficits will mostly disappear from the region, though some anomalies will linger in Tasmania. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Southern Northern Territory, with the most intense anomalies surrounding the city of Alice Springs. 

  • Queensland, covering most of the Yorke Peninsula. 

  • Along the eastern coastal regions of New South Wales. 

  • Central Western Australia, in areas near the region of Bandya. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Tasmania, across the majority of the country’s western regions. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

 FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through September 2024 anticipates that widespread surplus in northern Australia will convert to transitional conditions in some areas, particularly in both northern to central of the Northern Territory and the Yorke Peninsula. Intense surplus is expected to continue in central Northern Territory, near the city of Creswell. Surpluses will linger in southeastern coastal regions of New South Wales. Exceptional deficits will persist in southern coastal regions of Victoria. Deficits of lesser intensity are anticipated to linger in Tasmania. 

From October through December 2024, intense surplus is expected to continue in central portions of Northern Territory, while transitional conditions are expected to resolve becoming mostly near-normal conditions. Abnormal to moderate surplus will continue in central portions of the Yorke Peninsula. Surpluses across southeastern to eastern New South Wales will persist, expanding in some areas. Southern Tasmania can expect moderate deficits to continue. Similarly intense deficits will arise in southern regions of New Zealand’s South Island. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – expects surpluses in northern Australia to lessen in intensity, mostly resolving to near-normal conditions to moderate anomalies. Surplus in New South Wales is expected to continue.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

As property prices rise in Australia and New Zealand, experts warn of climate-related risks as buyers continue to build homes near coastlines and waterways. As weather patterns change and become more volatile, homes built in these areas run the risk of major damage, as well as the loss of personal wealth invested into the properties. As Australians and New Zealanders both collectively have high amounts of wealth within real estate, extreme weather events pose major threats to homes and economic stability. In New Zealand, reportedly 20 percent of houses are on floodplains. 

Damaging winds and rainfall hit Victoria on July 15th, prompting over 300 requests for assistance by residents for the Victorian State Emergency Services. A storm caused strong winds and rain to hit the state, destroying houses and trees, as well as flooding low-lying areas. Winds reached speeds of over 100 kilometers per hour in regions of Victoria and north-western Tasmania. 

Intense rainfall and wind affected New South Wales on July 14th, with portions of the Riverina region observing severe snow flurries due to a fast-moving cold front. Meteorologists anticipate that the cold front could potentially bring “the most significant snowfall of the year” to the area and is expected to appear along with potentially damaging winds and showers. As a result, the Bureau of Meteorology issued severe weather warnings for damaging winds in Victoria and New South Wales. 
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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