United States: Deficits in western, central states to persist

17 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that intense deficits will mostly resolve in the Upper Midwest, but will remain in isolated pockets in western and central states. Moderate to severe surplus may continue in some regions of Texas, Florida, Alaska, and Puerto Rico.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

Eastern Colorado, in regions east of Colorado Springs. These anomalies continue into the majority of northwestern Kansas and western regions of the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Southeastern Wyoming, near the city of Cheyenne, into western portions of Nebraska surrounding the city of Scottsbluff.
Northern and southern California, within the Shasta-Trinity National Forest and eastern portions of the Joshua Tree National Park. Western and southern Nevada can expect similar deficits near the city of Fernley and Mesquite, as well as areas near Barro, Utah.
Western Montana, in areas west of Flathead Lake.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southern Florida, in most areas south of the Big Cypress National Preserve.
Eastern Texas, near the city of Dallas, continuing into northern Louisiana, near the cities of Shreveport and Ruston.
Alaska, with the most intense anomalies appearing throughout the Seward Peninsula.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that some intense deficits will continue in southwestern Wyoming, western Nebraska, northern California, and northeastern Kansas. Similarly intense deficits are expected in the northeast, particularly throughout West Virginia, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to linger in southeastern to southern California, eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern Michigan. Similarly intense surplus is expected to continue throughout southern Florida, eastern Texas, Puerto Rico, and across much of western to northwestern Alaska.

From October through December 2024, most intense anomalies are expected to resolve in most of the United States. Isolated pockets of intense surplus will continue throughout southern Florida, southern California, and Puerto Rico. Exceptional deficits may arise in western Montana. Moderate drought may linger throughout much of the eastern U.S.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2025 – anticipates near-normal to abnormal conditions to continue across most of the Continental U.S. However, intense surpluses may persist in southern Florida and throughout Puerto Rico. Surpluses may emerge in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Climate experts anticipate that much of Colorado could potentially experience drought this summer as temperatures continue to rise. Though Colorado’s snowpack levels are average this season, snowpack has officially been depleted from all 115 federal snow monitoring stations as of early July. Additionally, summer rains may not be enough to offset the depletion, or to combat potential drought. Assistant State Climatologist Becky Bolinger recently stated that “the entire state is at risk of developing drought this summer,” and that “a strong monsoon would be really helpful. It would limit that risk of worsening drought. For now, it’s looking like that is not as likely, and that it’s going to be a pretty rough summer.” Adrian Bergere, executive director of the San Miguel Watershed Coalition, stated that “Without much rain, wildfire will definitely be a pretty serious concern.”

In Vermont, the recent deluge caused by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl added urgency to existing concerns regarding the hundreds of dams across the state, a third of which are over one hundred years old. Though the dams were not as damaged as they were during last year’s floods, during which 5 failed and 60 overtopped, the increased frequency of severe flooding raised concern over the efficiency of them. “The many thousands of obsolete dams that remain in our rivers do not provide protection from flooding, despite what many may think,” Andrew Fisk, the northeast regional director for the environmental advocacy group American Rivers, said. “Dams not created specifically for flood protection are regularly full and do not provide storage capacity. And they also frequently direct water outside of the main channel at high velocities which causes bank erosion and impacts to communities.”

Prolonged drought in Kansas has significantly affected water levels of Cheney Reservoir, a popular lake that provides drinking water to the city of Wichita. The National Weather Service of Wichita recently shared on its social media that “Cheney Reservoir is at its lowest level since 2013, which is a little over 6 feet below the normal conservation level.” According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the majority of Sedgwick County, where Wichita is located, is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags