South Asia: Surplus to emerge in Central India

South Asia: Surplus to emerge in Central India

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will appear in central India, while extreme to exceptional surpluses will continue in southern coastal regions of the country. Intense deficits are anticipated in regions of northern India and Bangladesh. 

Exceptional surplus is anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern Pakistan, in southwestern coastal regions of Balochistan. 

  • Southern India, throughout the state of Kerala. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Much of central India, covering the state of Gujarat and into areas surrounding the cities of Jaipur and Lucknow.

  • Southeastern Afghanistan, spreading along the country’s eastern border shared with Pakistan.

Severe to exceptional deficits will occur in the following areas: 

  • Northern India, spread throughout the states of Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

  • Bangladesh, with the most intense concentrations appearing within the Mymensingh Division.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through August 2024 anticipates extreme to exceptional surpluses to continue in southernmost states of India, as well as throughout Sri Lanka. Further north, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in the Indian states of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. In northern India, severe to extreme deficits will appear in the state of Himachal Pradesh and continue east into Uttarakhand. These deficits continue into the majority of Nepal and northern Bangladesh. 

From September through November 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to arise throughout southern Afghanistan and western to central regions of Pakistan. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to expand in northern and central India. Transitional conditions are anticipated in southeastern Afghanistan, which will continue across the country’s eastern border into central Pakistan. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – anticipates exceptional deficits in Afghanistan and Pakistan to significantly decrease in size, only persisting in small pockets in central Pakistan. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to continue in central India, and in isolated pockets of coastal southern India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A survey reported that 34% of Indians have moved or considered moving due to weather-related incidents such as heat, drought, and flooding across the country. Additionally, a large majority of surveyed people, nearly 85%, reported that they have personal experience with climate change affecting their livelihood. India is currently experiencing an intense summer as temperatures have risen above 50 degrees Celsius in some areas. 

On June 19th, intense monsoon rains triggered landslides in Bangladesh and India, which caused at least 15 deaths, several injuries, and the displacement of millions. The fatalities included eight Rohingya Muslims that were residing in refugee camps in southern Bangladesh. The disaster is the most recent in continuous events caused by extreme weather across South Asia. Amir Jafar, a security official in the refugee camps, said hundreds of refugees had since been moved from the areas deemed at risk. The Rohingya refugees mostly live in shacks made of bamboo and plastic sheets, often on steep, bare hills, which worsened the dangerous conditions.

A recent study by World Weather Attribution found that El Nino doubled the extreme rainfall that spread across Afghanistan and Pakistan in April and May of this year. It also found that rainfall in the region had increased by 25% in the last 40 years, increasing the risk of potentially devastating floods. Scientists categorized climate change as a “probable explanation” for these findings. Throughout April and May, floods killed at least 500 people in Afghanistan and 124 in Pakistan, and also destroyed residential and agricultural areas. Necephor Mghendi, the IFRC’s Head of Delegation for Afghanistan, said: "The findings by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) highlight the critical factors behind the deadly flooding in Afghanistan, emphasizing the increased rainfall from April to May, the influence of El Niño, and the country's high vulnerability to climate-related disasters. These floodings have compounded the already challenging situation faced by Afghan communities, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive and sustained humanitarian assistance.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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