Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional deficits remain in NW, E Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional deficits remain in NW, E Mexico

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will decrease in size throughout Mexico, but remain in northwestern and eastern parts of the country. Similarly intense deficits are expected to arise in portions of Guatemala and Honduras.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northwestern Mexico, throughout portions of Sonora, western Chihuahua, and northern Sinaloa. 

  • Baja California Sur, widespread throughout the state.

  • Mexico, throughout regions east of Mexico City. 

  • Central Guatemala, in regions surrounding Izabel Lake. These deficits continue east into regions of northwestern and eastern Honduras, eastern coastal regions of Nicaragua, and central to southern Belize. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Mexico, throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. 

  • Central Honduras, widespread throughout most of the region. 

  • Western Nicaragua, in regions near Lake Cocibolca, spreading into northern Costa Rica.

Extreme to exceptional transitional conditions are anticipated in: 

  • Western Honduras. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 anticipates deficits in Sonora to continue, with some pockets of similar deficits appearing near coastal regions of Jalisco and Colima. Some regions near Mexico City are expected to continue enduring deficits of varying intensity. Exceptional deficits will persist in central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, with some moderate surplus appearing in east-central regions of Honduras and northern Costa Rica. 

From July through September 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to linger in northwestern Mexico, persisting in the state of Sonora. Deficits along the western coast of Mexico are expected to diminish, as well as exceptional deficits in Guatemala and Honduras, which are expected to become moderate surplus, spanning throughout much of Central America. Severe to extreme surpluses will appear throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipate surpluses in the Yucatan Peninsula to linger. Deficits in northwestern Mexico are expected to lessen in intensity, becoming moderate to severe deficits. Similar deficits may arise in regions of north-central Mexico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Earlier this month, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua), noted that the previous March was the sixth driest one on record in Mexico. A total of 7.34 millimeters of rainfall were recorded, with 57.5% of the country reporting varying degrees of drought, ranging from moderate to exceptional. Northern and central-southern portions of Mexico are among the worst affected, as well as coastal regions along the Gulf of Mexico. 

The intense drought is also destroying winter corn crops, which are primarily used to make other foods, including tortillas. “The prospect of more costly tortillas would be yet another burst of food inflation for U.S. consumers. But in Mexico, the price of tortillas is a matter of national importance and one in which the government regularly intervenes, rewarding growers with price support and currying favor with voters by keeping prices for the staple low,” a report from ADM Investor Group states. The ADM representative continued, saying that “Most of Mexico is in drought, but it’s particularly dry along the Gulf of California in Sinaloa, where most of the country’s winter corn is grown. 

Lake Patzcuaro, in the Mexican state of Michoacán, has reportedly lost over half of its volume since authorities began tracking its falling water levels. The decrease in volume stems from prolonged drought and illegal extraction of its water. As drought continues, water levels cannot be replenished, as criminals siphon water from the lake to sell for profit. Municipal officials stated that a committee was created in April to preserve the lake, and reported the prevention of the theft of “600,000 liters of water per day.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.