Canada: Deficits continue in Prairie Provinces, northern regions

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to lessen in size throughout most provinces, but remain in the West Coast, Prairie Provinces, and some provinces in the North region.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central and northeastern British Columbia, in the Northern Rockies region as well as the Omineca Protected Area, which continues east into the majority of northern Alberta.
Saskatchewan, widespread throughout regions near Lake Athabasca, Reindeer Lake, and Cree Lake. These deficits continue east into Manitoba, in regions northwest of Lake Winnipeg.
Southern Ontario, in regions north of Lake Superior. Deficits are also expected in northeastern coastal regions of the country, which continue into western coastal regions of Quebec, near La Grande Riviere Reservoir.
Northwest Territories, in areas surrounding Great Bear Lake, as well as areas southeast of Great Slave Lake.
Nunavut, in southern areas of the Kivalliq Region and western regions of the Kitikmeot Region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Nunavut, primarily in northern portions of Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout central and northeastern regions of British Columbia, which continue east into northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are expected to dissipate in Ontario, though some are expected to remain present in northeastern coastal regions of the province. Eastern regions of Newfoundland are expected to observe extreme to exceptional deficits, as well as regions south of Great Bear Lake and west of Great Slave Lake in Northwest Territories. Exceptional deficits will persist in the Kivalliq and Kitikmeot regions of Nunavut. Northern and central Quebec are forecast to observe severe to exceptional surplus, as well as some northern regions of Newfoundland and Labrador. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to continue throughout Baffin Island, with the highest concentrations appearing in the island’s southern regions.

From July through September 2024, moderate to severe deficits will expand throughout northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, central to northern Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. Exceptional deficits may arise in Newfoundland and Labrador. Further north, regions near Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake are expected to observe continuing exceptional deficits. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to continue in northern to central regions of Baffin Island.

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – expects exceptional deficits to continue to downsize throughout most provinces, though persist in pockets throughout northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. Regions near Great Bear Lake can expect similar deficits to persist. Deficits are expected to intensify in Nunavut, specifically in southwestern regions of Baffin Island and in the Taloyoak Inuit Owned Lands.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On April 10th, Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan issued a warning that the country’s upcoming wildfire season could be worse than last year’s season, which led to an unprecedented air quality crisis that spread across Canada and into the United States. Sajjan cited prolonged drought and warmer temperatures as factors affecting the increase of wildfire risk. “We can expect that the wildfire season will start sooner, end later and potentially be more explosive,” stated Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan in a recent conference. 2023’s wildfire season was the country’s worst on record. It burned more than 15 million hectares and displaced more than 230,000 people.

In western Canada, severe drought conditions are also expected to have a negative effect on the oil and natural gas sector, as some drilling operations are within some of the driest areas of the region. Water scarcity is also expected to significantly impact production of oil and gas, and snowpack is below average for the region this year. In British Columbia, snowpack levels are reportedly only 72 percent of the historical average. "It's not going to be as simple to just pipe fresh water in. You may need to move it and truck it to different locations," said Andrew Botterill, an energy analyst with Deloitte Canada.

Provincial officials of Alberta have raised concern over its impending water crisis. Since the beginning of the year, Albertans have experienced continuous dry conditions, which has deleted reservoirs, specifically in southwestern regions of the province. As of April 4th, the St. Mary reservoir is at 22 percent capacity, and the Oldman reservoir remains at 32 percent. As of March 28th, 51 water shortage advisories were set in Alberta. In the province, agriculture fields consume up to 1.6 trillion liters of freshwater, while municipalities, First Nations, and industry are licensed to use another 9.8 trillion liters of potable water. All of this water comes from nearby mountains, winding down the slopes from snow, ancient glaciers and the heavy rains that usually fall in the spring, but is not nearly enough to supply the land and people.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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