United States: Deficits persist in the Upper Midwest

20 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that most exceptional deficits are expected to dissipate, as are exceptional surpluses occurring in western and northeastern states. However, deficits are still expected to continue in some Upper Midwest regions.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Indiana, spread throughout most central regions of the state.
Michigan, throughout the Upper and Northern Lower peninsulas, continuing south into Oneida County, Wisconsin.
Minnesota, with deficits occurring in St. Louis County.
Western Maine, in Oxford County.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Alaska, with surpluses appearing in northern regions of the Seward Peninsula, which continue east into the Northwest Arctic Borough.
Southern and northern Florida, along the state’s southeastern coast, as well as throughout regions near the city of Tallahassee.
Southern California, with most anomalies appearing in areas northwest of Los Angeles. Nevada can expect similar anomalies to appear in places within and near Nye County.
Puerto Rico, in most western regions of the island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits in southeastern states will mostly resolve, becoming a mixture of normal conditions and abnormal to moderate surpluses. In the Upper Midwest, exceptional deficits are expected to expand, spreading further throughout the Upper and Northern Lower Peninsula regions of Michigan, as well as northeastern Wisconsin and central Minnesota. Northeastern Iowa can expect moderate to extreme deficits to arise. Areas along the western border of Maine can expect exceptional deficits to emerge. Some regions of western Colorado and central Utah should expect pockets of severe to extreme deficits. Surplus is expected to remain in northern and southern regions of Florida and expand through southern Alabama and southeastern Louisiana. Surplus is expected to expand throughout most of Alaska.

From June through August 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to remain in Minnesota, northeastern Wisconsin, and peninsular regions of Michigan. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast to appear in central, eastern, and northeastern Maine and northern New York. Surpluses in California and Nevada are expected to remain. Much of Alaska is expected to transition from surpluses to near normal conditions with pockets of abnormal deficits.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – anticipates abnormal to moderate deficits to cover most of the country. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge throughout New Mexico and the Great Plains region of Texas. Moderate to severe surpluses may cover most of Puerto Rico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Iowans are dealing with dangerous levels of nitrate contamination in their water supplies, all in the midst of a three year long drought. “It’s really more complex than people can believe,” said Ted Corrigan, chief executive of Des Moines Water Works, which possesses one of the largest nitrate removal systems in the world. “We’re actually monitoring it on an hour-by-hour basis, all these different factors to see what’s changing: if a little bit of rainfall is going to change things, or if demand is going to pick up for some reason. We may change (water) sources multiple times in a day.” The Des Moines and Raccoon rivers provide drinking water for over 600,000 people. Using this tool, contaminated water can become purified, which feeds into two lakes and several wells. These reservoirs are used to replenish groundwater during periods of low demand, which is pumped back out when demand is high.

Despite enduring an El Nino winter, snowpack levels in Oregon were recently reported to be above-normal statewide. “Across the state, especially after this active storm period, snowpack is doing quite well. We are slightly above normal statewide for snowpack,” said Matt Warbritton, a supervisory hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service. In previous months, the state saw 9 inches of rain in December, 9.5 in January, and 4 in February. “Having above water supply really helps boost reservoir storage, which will help if the summer is going to be drier,” Warbritton said. This year’s snowpack also helps with current drought conditions, as about 15% of the state is experiencing drought.

Nebraska and Missouri, two of the top ten beef-producing states, are witnessing the largest decline in quality of June pastureland in four years, which is due to drought and climate change. As climate change causes large rainfall events to be more frequent, as well as months of zero precipitation to occur, the unpredictability of current weather patterns has made it unrealistic for farmers to rely on typical weather patterns, jeopardizing grazing conditions. The overall size of the U.S. beef cattle herd has continually declined since 1975, which is largely attributed to an increase in global beef production and cattle imports. At the beginning of 2024, the nation’s inventory of beef cattle hit a 61-year low, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Minnesota recently reported a notably warm and dry winter, recording less than half of the usual average snowfall, as well as drought throughout the winter. Abnormally dry conditions exist throughout the state, and nearly half of Minnesota is in either moderate or severe drought. Minnesota has experienced significant drought conditions each year since 2021, which was the most severe drought since 1988. While the drought in 2023 was generally less severe, some areas of the state experienced conditions comparable to or worse than those of 2021.

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) recently reported that drought expanded further across the state, covering regions of the Texas Panhandle and High Plains after weeks of battling wildfires. The most recent map from the TWDB showed that Texas drought conditions covered 24% of the state, expanding slightly compared to 23% the previous week, 44% three months ago, and 65% one year ago.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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