ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST Feburary 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in December 2023 and running through November 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List March 16, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Regions of the Upper Midwest are expected to observe lingering extreme to exceptional deficits until August 2024.

Canada:  Portions of the Prairie Provinces and Northern Territories can anticipate exceptional deficits to linger until August 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean:  Northwestern regions of Mexico are expected to endure lingering deficits until November 2024 or longer.

South America:  Portions of central to southern Brazil and the Bolivarian Nations should anticipate deficits until August 2024.

Europe:  Widespread surpluses are expected throughout most European regions until May 2024.

Africa: Surpluses are expected to emerge throughout the Sahel starting in June 2024 and are expected to last until November 2024 or longer.

Middle East: Intense deficits are expected to linger in pockets throughout southern Middle Eastern countries until May 2024.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in western Russia until May 2024, while southwestern regions can expect surpluses to linger until August 2024.

South Asia: Much of India is expected to observe abnormal anomalies, though surpluses are expected to be widespread throughout India starting in June 2024 and continuing until November 2024 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses of varying intensity are expected to be present in much of Maritime Southeast Asia until November 2024 or longer.

East Asia: Widespread surplus is expected to emerge in Tibet, but resolve after May 2024.

Australia & New Zealand: Northern regions of Australia are expected to observe widespread surpluses through May 2024, which will shift to transitional conditions until August 2024.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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