Canada: Widespread deficits remain in most provinces

22 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to somewhat decrease in size and severity, but still remain widespread in most provinces. Some exceptional surplus is expected to continue in regions of Nunavut.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, throughout regions near the Graham - Laurier Provincial Park, continuing into northeastern Alberta, widespread throughout MacKenzie County.
Saskatchewan, widespread throughout most central areas of the province, spreading into western Manitoba in places northwest of Lake Winnipeg.
Central Ontario, widespread throughout the Unorganized North Cochrane District and in coastal regions along the Hudson Bay.
Western and northern Quebec, in coastal regions along the Hudson Bay, as well as throughout central areas of the Nunavik region, spreading east into the Kuururjuaq and Torngat Mountains national parks.
Northwest Territories, with the highest concentrations appearing in areas near Great Bear Lake, as well as in areas southeast of Great Slave Lake. Similarly intense deficits are anticipated in Nunavut, in central portions of the Kitikmeot Region, as well as southern portions of the Kivalliq Region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Nunavut, in Baffin Island, widespread throughout the Clyde River Inuit Owned Land.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will continue in most provinces. Central to northeastern British Columbia can anticipate deficits to linger, though deficits in northern Alberta will somewhat decrease in size. Deficits throughout Saskatchewan are expected to persist, as well as in western regions of Manitoba and central Ontario. Western coastal regions of Quebec are expected to observe prolonged deficits, as well as regions in Northwest Territories south of Great Bear Lake and southwest of Great Slave Lake. Similarly, deficits in central portions of the Kitikmeot Region and southern portions of the Kivalliq Region will persist. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to emerge in western coastal regions of British Columbia, and extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in Baffin Island.

From April through June 2024, widespread deficits are expected to decrease in intensity, but still remain present in most provinces. British Columbia, northern Alberta, and central Saskatchewan are expected to observe shrinking deficits. Exceptional deficits will remain in coastal regions of Ontario and Quebec along the Hudson Bay, as well as central regions of Northwest Territories and western to southern regions of Nunavut. Surplus is expected to continue in Baffin Island.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – expects deficits to continue lessening in intensity, with exceptional deficits continuing in pockets of central Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, central to northeastern British Columbia, southern Nunavut, and regions near Great Bear Lake. Surpluses in Baffin Island area are expected to expand in size.

IMPACTS
John Pomeroy, hydrologist and professor in the department of Geography and Planning at the University of Saskatchewan, recently stated that 2023 was one of the hottest years in history for some Canadian regions. Major areas of deficit spanned across large areas of the country, from British Columbia through Ontario. Currently, these regions are experiencing a lack of snow and water accumulation that experts deem “unprecedented in modern times.” “This was a year that [had] not only a drought, but it was a year that very closely followed the worst-case climate projections for around the year 2100,” Pomeroy continued, “and so this gives us a taste of what climate change might bring to Canada.” Water restriction plans are already being created for spring and summer in Alberta, and some residents in British Columbia are using bottled water to conserve water.

On December 20th, Alberta's environment minister Rebecca Shulz wrote to municipalities in an effort to promote water conservation due to the province’s current drought. In a letter, Shulz pushed for development of a water shortage plan, monitoring of water intake, and a review of their water licenses to assess any limits set during drought. In a recent interview, Schulz stated intentions for the ministry to act proactively with water conservation. "We're really asking them to gather that information sooner rather than later, and then look at a plan to manage this across the province." she said.

In British Columbia, unprecedented drought has diminished output of hydroelectric power, prompting utility companies to urge for electricity conservation this winter. Simultaneously, utility companies are raising rates to cover the cost of importing power. “This year has been an extraordinary one and has made Hydro a net importer,” stated B.C. Energy Minister Josie Osborne told Global News. BC Hydro imported nearly one fifth of its total load this year, at a cost of more than C$450 million. “Historically speaking, this is quite high,” BC Hydro spokesperson Kevin Aquino told CBC News. “The last time we did this was over a decade ago.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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