Africa: Surplus emerges in C, E Africa

22 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to persist in northwestern and southern regions, but significantly decrease in north-central regions of the country. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to expand in central and eastern portions of Africa.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Mauritania, widespread throughout the country, as well as in Western Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, and northern Mali.
Western and eastern Libya, with the highest concentrations appearing in regions near the city of Sabhā, as well as the Al Wahat and Kufra districts. Similarly intense deficits are expected in northeastern Egypt along most coastal regions bordering the Mediterranean and Red seas.
Northwestern Sudan, in northern areas of the Al Malha region.
Eastern Namibia, in pockets throughout the Omaheke Region, continuing throughout most of Botswana. Regions of western Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, and northern Mozambique can expect similarly intense deficits.
Madagascar, in most regions along the country’s western coast.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Tanzania, widespread throughout the country.
Much of the Horn of Africa, with intense surpluses arising throughout Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern Ethiopia.

Southern portions of Sudan and South Sudan along the southern borders, as well as central Chad, across from the Ouaddaï Region. Similarly intense anomalies are expected in northeastern Nigeria in the state of Borno.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits in northern and northwestern regions of Africa will resolve. Exceptional deficits are still expected to remain in southern Chad, Sudan, Central African Republic, and South Sudan. Similarly intense deficits are expected to arise in the Horn of Africa, specifically in eastern Ethiopia and northern to central Somalia. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to expand in Tanzania, and are expected to persist in southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and Kenya.

From April through June 2024, pockets of extreme deficits are expected to emerge, scattered across northern African countries, including Algeria, Libya, and Sudan. Exceptional deficits are expected to arise in northwestern regions of Sudan, as well as northwestern regions of Ethiopia. Some regions of western Central African Republic are expected to experience severe to exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to arise in western Ethiopia, continuing into South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – expects surpluses to intensify in central countries, specifically in southern Chad, southern Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Exceptional surpluses are expected to move north from southern Sudan into portions of Egypt’s Asyut Governorate. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in Tanzania, moving east through the Ivory Coast, southern Mali, and into Nigeria. Exceptional deficits are expected to reappear in pockets throughout Algeria, Mauritania, Mali, and central Botswana.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On January 17th, the U.N. World Food Programme reported that it was working with Zimbabwe's government and relevant agencies to distribute food to nearly 2.7 million residents of rural communities in drought-stricken areas of southern Africa. As these regions rely on small-scale agriculture for food, this year’s poor harvests put nearly 20 percent of Zimbabwe’s population at heightened risk of food scarcity. El Nino is expected to worsen these conditions by causing below-average rainfall again this year, said Francesca Erdelmann, WFP country director for Zimbabwe.

Six years of consecutive drought have diminished water levels of Morocco’s dams, resulting in a major decrease in the area of land being irrigated in the country. As of mid-January, the average filling rate for dams in the country dropped to 23.2% from 31.5% the previous year, according to a report from water minister Nizar Baraka. Baraka stated that rainfall was 70% lower than in an average year. Additionally, Al Masira, the second biggest dam in Morocco, is reportedly almost empty. These conditions prompted authorities to ban use of drinking water for street cleaning or irrigation in city parks, as well as inhibiting the use of dam water in irrigating major farming areas.

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) recently warned that residents of South Sudan, particularly children in flood-affected regions, are expected to endure extreme levels of malnutrition in the first six months of 2024. Conditions are expected to worsen in the spring, as more flooding is expected to hit the country. Malnutrition is exacerbated in these flood-affected areas due to the spread of waterborne diseases, crowded living conditions, and limited access to food. “This is the reality of living on the frontline of the climate crisis,” warned Mary-Ellen McGroarty, WFP Representative to South Sudan. “We’re seeing an extremely concerning rise in malnutrition which is a direct result of living in overcrowded and waterlogged conditions. The spread of waterborne diseases unravels any work humanitarian agencies do in preventing and treating malnutrition and it is young children who are suffering the impact most severely.” In 2021 alone, over 500,000 residents were displaced. Data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IC) shows more than 1.6 million children under five years of age are expected to suffer from malnutrition in 2024.

The chart above depicts the fraction of the South Sudanese population exposed to surface water anomalies using one month integration periods since January 2010. As with our maps, the blues indicate surpluses and the reds indicate deficits. The more intense the color, the more extreme the anomaly. The gray region is the forecast for the next nine months. While there is some uncertainty due to the long lead time, we are forecasting significantly more widespread water surpluses than the disastrous 2019-2022 floods. The impacts of these surpluses will likely be amplified by ongoing conflict and food insecurity.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.