Africa: Deficits in Sahara, surpluses s of sahel to persist

21 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates exceptional deficits in the Sahara Desert, with anomalies of varying intensity spanning across its central and southern areas, including intense surpluses south of the Sahel.

Exceptional deficits are expected in:

Central to northern Mauritania, spreading across its western coast to southern Tiris Zemmour, northern Tagant, and throughout north-central Adrar Region.
Much of Algeria, throughout the Adrar, Tamanghasset, and Illizi regions. Transitional conditions are expected in the Naama, El Bayadh, Ghardaia, and eastern Bechar regions.
Western and southeastern Libya, widespread throughout the Ghadamis, Ghat, Ash Shati, Ajdabiya, and Murzuq regions.
Southwestern through central Egypt, spanning much of the New Valley Governorate, with pockets reaching to the coast of the Red Sea.
Western and eastern Morocco, throughout its western coastal regions and near the Moulouya River.
Southern Gabon, along the Ngounie River.
Southern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, throughout areas near the Nirari River.
Southwestern Namibia, in western coastal areas of Karas.
Countries in the Horn of Africa, including Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia. These areas can anticipate pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit, with transitional conditions along Somaliland and Somalia’s borders.
Northern Mali.
Eastern coastal regions of Madagascar, southeast of the Mania River.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Northeastern Central African Republic, in the Haute-Kotto prefecture.
Northeastern Niger, along its shared borders with Libya and Chad.
Northwestern to central Democratic Republic of the Congo, near the Congo River.
South Africa, in Western Cape’s western region and along the nation’s southern coast into Eastern Cape.
Southwestern Namibia, along the western coast of Karas Region.
Northwestern Angola, near the city of Luanda.
Sierra Leone.

Severe to extreme surpluses are forecast in:

Along the shared borders of northern Nigeria and southern Niger.
South-central Chad, spreading into southern Sudan.
Southeastern Cameroon, east of the Dja River.
Along western coastal regions of Equatorial Guinea.
West-central Tanzania, in regions nearby the Igombe River.
Central to eastern Namibia, moving east into western Botswana, central Zambia, and northwestern Mozambique.
North-central South Africa, with small, isolated activity near its shared border with Botswana, as well as throughout Lesotho.
Central Madagascar, in areas north of the Mananantanana River.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 predicts that exceptional deficits in the Sahara Desert will downgrade. A few areas of exceptional anomalies may persist in northern Mali. Much of the southern Sahel can expect intense surpluses to persist, throughout Burkina Faso and southern Sudan, becoming widespread throughout Chad. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include southeastern Angola, much of Zambia, eastern Namibia, and northwestern Mozambique. Pockets throughout South Africa and Lesotho are expected to persist, though slightly downgraded to moderate surpluses.

From April through June 2023, exceptional deficits in the Sahara Desert are expected to dissipate, though persisting in southeastern Libya and western Egypt into northwestern Sudan. Western Algeria can expect deficits of similar intensity to reemerge. Surpluses in the south Sahel will persist, intensifying in southern Niger, northern Nigeria, much of Chad, and southwestern Sudan. Additionally, areas in northern Somalia near its shared border with Ethiopia can expect similarly intense surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – expects deficits of moderate intensity in the Sahara Desert to persist, though areas of exceptional deficits will occur in southeastern Libya, southwestern Egypt, and western Algeria. Surpluses in the Sahel are expected to mostly diminish, with some surpluses remaining in southwestern Sudan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Horn of Africa has experienced five successive seasons of below average rainfall, and according to International Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), is projected to reach famine conditions in 2023, the highest phase of their classification system. The IPC categorizes famine as having at least 20% of the population face significant food shortages, rates of acute malnutrition reaching over 30%, and at least two in 10,000 people dying from hunger daily. Food insecurity in the Horn of Africa has been further exacerbated by political instability and rising food prices, leading 36.4 million people to suffer from hunger and 21.7 million requiring food assistance across the region.

Human rights group Refugees International called on officials to discuss major environmental issues concerning Lake Chad at an international conference next week in Niamey, Niger’s capital. The Lake Chad basin, which covers 8% of Africa and is a key resource to over 42 million people, has shrunk 90% in 60 years, resulting in displacement of 3 million people and an additional 11 million requiring humanitarian assistance. Dwindling resources have caused tensions to rise between communities, with conflict over access to natural resources forcing 60,000 people to seek refuge in nearby Chad in late 2021. The United Nations weather agency states that the basin is “particularly vulnerable to climate change related extreme events” and expects these events to occur more frequently, further negatively impacting food security in the area.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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