United States: Major water deficits in PNW to persist

21 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates anomalies of varying intensity throughout the country, with the most intense occurring in the Pacific Northwest, throughout California, and along the Upper Basin of the Colorado River. Outside of the continental U.S., much of Hawaii and western and southeastern Alaska are expected to experience intense anomalies.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Southwestern Oregon, in regions north of the Rogue and Sprague Rivers, and east of the Willamette River.
Central Idaho, near the Salmon River Mountains.
Western-central Washington, in areas west of the Columbia River.
Southern California.

Moderate to extreme deficits can be expected in:

North-central Iowa, near the city of Emmetsburg.
The Idaho Panhandle, primarily near Lake Pend Orielle.
Western coastal areas of Washington into western Oregon.
Southern North Carolina, near Lower Cape Fear.
Northern Florida, near the base of the Chattahoochee River, and in coastal areas near Jacksonville.
Northwestern Alaska, near the city of Kaktovik and moving inland towards the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Areas experiencing severe to exceptional surpluses include:

Western New Mexico, in areas near the Gila River and west of the Pecos River.
Western-central Utah, southwest of Salt Lake City.
Northern and eastern Nevada, north of the Humbolt River, as well as southeast of the city of Elko.
Central California, near San Jose and along the Salinas River.
Central Montana, east of the city of Helena.
Much of Hawaii.
Western Alaska, across coastal areas of the North Slope Borough, Northwest Arctic Borough. These surpluses continue along the coast of Nome and into Bethel, spreading further along Bristol Bay and further inland. Southeastern areas of the state, in regions south of the Tanana River, will also be affected.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 indicates intense surpluses throughout the northeastern states, intensifying in southern Maine and spreading into southern New Hampshire, Massachusetts, central New York, and north-central Pennsylvania. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected in southern Wisconsin and northern Michigan, with pockets of moderate surplus throughout Illinois. extreme to exceptional surpluses are anticipated to persist in southern Idaho, continuing in eastern-central Nevada and west-central Utah. Similar surpluses in western New Mexico are also expected to continue. Areas expected to experience intense deficits include north-central Iowa, southern North Carolina, and northern Florida. Deficits in central Idaho near the Salmon River Mountains are also expected to linger.

Outside of the Continental U.S., widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue throughout Alaska, with the most intense anomalies occurring across the state’s southern regions. In Hawaii, surpluses of similar intensity are also expected to continue.

From April through June 2023, much of the anomalies in the eastern states will subside into normal conditions, while severe to extreme surpluses are predicted for eastern Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, and southwestern New Mexico. Southeastern California, southern New Mexico, and northern Florida can expect mild to moderate deficits. Outside of the Continental U.S., Hawaii and the majority of Alaska can expect intense surpluses, except for northwestern Alaska, which can anticipate moderate to severe deficits.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity in the western states, with isolated transitional conditions in California’s central regions and north-central Utah. Significant surpluses are expected to persist in southern Idaho, eastern Nevada, and southwestern New Mexico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Rio Verde Foothills, a suburb of Scottsdale, Arizona, was cut off from the city’s water supply on January 1st. Scottsdale officials previously warned the community that since it was governed by Maricopa County, it could not depend on their reserves, particularly during periods of prolonged drought. Currently, 500 homes in the suburb have limited or no access to fresh water, with residents forced to travel or gather rainwater to cope. One resident reports using water gathered from their pool to wash clothes and bathe. The mayor of Scottsdale cites the decision was made over growing concerns about the persistent drought along the Colorado River. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Arizona is one of 33 states in the U.S. currently experiencing drought.

Crook County, a county in central Oregon, declared a drought emergency on January 12th, asking the governor for relief assistance. The county has experienced consistent drought since 2019, and is the only county in the state experiencing an exceptional degree, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The community’s farmers, known to be large producers of hay, report having to use less than 50% of their fields due to water scarcity. County officials state that there is a potential for major damage to impact the Crook County agricultural, natural resources, recreational, tourism and related economies as a result of the prolonged drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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