Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits continue in NW, E Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits continue in NW, E Mexico

22 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 expects widespread deficits in Mexico to diminish, though will still continue in northwestern and eastern regions of the country.  

The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 expects widespread deficits in Mexico to diminish, though will still continue in northwestern and eastern regions of the country.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Mexico, throughout many areas of the country, including central to southern Baja California Sur, central to southeastern Sonora and Durango, and widespread throughout San Luis Potosi, continuing east towards the country’s eastern coast.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Eastern Honduras, throughout regions near the city of Catacamas.

  • Eastern Cuba, throughout the Las Tunas region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 indicates that existing widespread exceptional deficits in Mexico are expected to decrease in size, though will persist in Sonora and Durango. Further east, deficits in San Luis Potosi, Hidalgo, and Puebla can expect similarly intense deficits to persist. Eastern Honduras can expect widespread surpluses to persist, as well as western coastal regions of Nicaragua. Much of Costa Rica and Panama can expect moderate to severe deficits to emerge. 

From March through May 2024, exceptional deficits in the Mexican states of Sonora and Durango are expected to diminish in size, though will reappear along the country’s western coast. Moderate to severe surplus in eastern Honduras is expected to persist, while similarly intense surpluses will emerge in Costa Rica. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates most intense deficits in Mexico to diminish, leaving some moderate to severe deficits in San Luis Potosi which continue towards the eastern coast, as well as isolated exceptional deficits in southern Baja California Sur. Some regions in Central America can anticipate moderate surplus, particularly throughout Costa Rica.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As drought has affected more than 80% of Mexico for several months, experts anticipate food prices and production to be substantially impacted.  According to the National Agricultural Council (CNA), the decrease in food production is expected to consequently cause an increase in food prices. Seasonal crops are expected to be the most affected, particularly corn, beans, and sugarcane, with the production of these crops potentially lowering to 20% of its usual output, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

A recent analysis from the Bank of Mexico, Banxico, revealed that the production of corn and avocados has suffered the most from drought, more than any other crop in the country. August and September were recorded as the months with the most damage done to these crops, which suffered from major heat extremes and lack of sufficient water. "The drought indicator allows us to have more information about the conditions in places where these products are grown and in the third quarter we saw high levels and we believe it is related to the effect of climate change," said Alejandrina Salcedo, general director of Economic Research in Banxico.

The National Water Commission, Conagua, reported that the dams that consist of the Cutzamala system registered at less than half of its capacity at 41.6%. The total storage of the affected system is nearly 325 million cubic meters. These dams provide 25% of the Valley of Mexico’s potable water supply. Official reports specified that the El Bosque dam is at 60.3% of its capacity, the Villa Victoria reservoir 30.7%, and the Valle de Bravo tank at 37%. The El Bosque dam maintains a 100% deficit. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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