Canada: widespread deficits to continue across most provinces

21 December 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 expects exceptional deficits to persist across most provinces, though exceptional anomalies will somewhat decrease in size in northern provinces including Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Exceptional deficits in Quebec are expected to increase in size.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, in regions southwest of Williston Lake, as well as the Northern Rockies region. These deficits continue into northwestern Alberta, in regions within and surrounding MacKenzie County.
Central Saskatchewan, in most areas south of Lake Athabasca and north of Wapawekka Lake, as well as regions north of the town of Kamsack. These deficits continue into west-central Manitoba, in areas northwest of Lake Winnipeg.
Northeastern Ontario, in northern regions of the Unorganized North Cochrane District, into much of north-central Quebec, into regions of Newfoundland.
Northern Yukon, in eastern portions of the Old Crow region, which continues east into Northwest Territories, spreading far throughout the province.
Northern, western, and southern Nunavut, in southern portions of the Kitikmeot and Kivalliq regions. Similar deficits are found further north, throughout most northern areas of the Qikiqtaaluk Region.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to occur in:

The Qikiqtaaluk Region of Nunavut, covering much of Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits throughout most provinces will continue. These regions include central to northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, the majority of Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, and much of central to northeastern Ontario. Deficits will continue up the coast of Hudson Bay into western coastal regions of Quebec. Deficits in Northwest Territories will persist, which will travel further northwest into northern Yukon. Similarly intense deficits will endure in western and southern Nunavut.

From March through May 2024, intense deficits are expected to linger, but slightly decrease in size. Affected areas include central and northeastern British Columbia, isolated pockets across northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, and central to northeastern Ontario. Similarly, deficits in northern Yukon will continue, which spread further southeast in pockets across Northwest Territories and western to southern Nunavut. Deficits in the northernmost islands of northern Nunavut will increase in intensity, becoming extreme to exceptional.

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – exceptional deficits are expected to linger, but further diminish in size. Deficits will continue in isolated portions of northeastern British Columbia, northeastern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and western Ontario. Further north, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in areas surrounding to mostly dissipate, but may expand in southern regions of the province. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to continue in central Baffin Island.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Consistent drought in British Columbia has forced the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, or BC Hydro, to rely on expensive energy imports for one fifth of its domestic needs in 2023 due to a lack of sufficient water in local reservoirs. On November 14th, Hydro officials made the decision to wait until next fall to close the tunnels that have been diverting the Peace River around the dam site, which would allow the reservoir to fill over a period of months. “We just got to a point where winter conditions were setting in, and it wasn’t just possible to start filling that late into fall and winter,” said Hydro BC spokesperson Greg Alexis. After two years of exceptional drought, and next year’s forecast for more warm, dry weather, BC Hydro is expected to continue its reliance on power imports.

Warm, dry conditions in Alberta have contributed to a drop in wheat yields by nearly 20% after the 2023 harvest. This year, southern and central regions of the province were hit worst by dry conditions, but levels of precipitation were near average during the growing season around Edmonton and other regions further west, which positively affected growth in those areas. Local farmer Stephen Vandervalk stated that the weather during this year's growing season is a continuation of problematic conditions in his area, as drought and low crop yields has been present for six out of the last seven years. "It's really a tough spot. Our costs have literally doubled, I would say to put a crop in, in the last five years ... If it wasn't for crop insurance, this would be a whole different landscape."

Alberta oil and gas companies may also expect to see water restrictions set in place as extreme drought is expected to persist into 2024. Experts anticipate that producers that rely on groundwater near southern Alberta may have to stop producing altogether. As the region remains in the midst of a record-setting drought, the region’s oil and gas producers could be forced to cease diverting scarce water next year. Officials have already asked some water license-holders to discontinue taking water due to low river levels.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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