Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits continue throughout Mexico

27 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates exceptional, widespread deficits to continue throughout the majority of Mexico, while lessening in intensity in the Yucatan Peninsula and in northern Honduras. Much of Central America can expect near-normal conditions, with some deficits appearing in western Honduras and southern Nicaragua.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of June 2024.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the following areas:

Mexico, with exceptional deficits widespread throughout much of the country. The highest concentrations are expected in the states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Tamalupias, San Luis Potosi, Michoacan, western coastal regions of Colima, and Jalisco, as well as coastal regions of Veracruz.
Western Honduras into Guatemala, with exceptional deficits occurring throughout the department of Santa Barbara, into the departments of Zacapa and Chiquimula.
Southern Nicaragua, with moderate to severe deficits appearing east of Lake Cocibolca.

Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Eastern Cuba, throughout the municipality of Camaguey.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will decrease in magnitude, though will continue to linger throughout the states of Durango and San Luis Potosi. Severe to extreme deficits are also expected in western regions of Oaxaca. Much of Central America, as well as the Caribbean, can anticipate near-normal conditions.

From January through March 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in the Mexican state of Durango, as well as in areas near Mexico City, but will mostly decrease in magnitude in other Mexican states. Northeastern areas of El Salvador can expect exceptional deficits, while the rest of Central America can anticipate near-normal conditions.

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – indicates that widespread deficits throughout Mexico will continue to decrease in magnitude and intensity, with exceptional deficits occurring primarily in the state of Durango. The majority of other areas of Mexico and Central America can anticipate near-normal conditions, while the Dominican Republic can expect mostly moderate surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, 75% percent of the country is currently experiencing drought, with categorically extreme drought occurring across central and northern Mexico, and exceptional drought specifically in San Luis Potosi and Durango. The Mexican government distributed supplies of water to drought-stricken areas in Durango via truck throughout the summer and an additional 40 million liters of water to eight other states affected. Major water reservoirs in the area, such as Villa Victoria, is at one-third of its usual annual level, which is a water source for over 20 million people. Locals are worried that as Mexico’s rainy season is nearing its end, the chance for the reservoirs to refill will similarly vanish. As a result, the Mexican National Water Commission on Tuesday announced water restrictions of about 8% of the Cutzamala reservoir system's flow, and millions of users in Mexico City and Toluca fear even greater restrictions over the winter. Mexico City gets more than a quarter of its water from the Cutzamala reservoirs.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization recently attributed worsening food shortages in Guatemala to prolonged drought. Over the past decade, countries in the Dry Corridor have been hit by longer and more intense droughts, significantly damaging crops. Up to 4.6 million people, a quarter of Guatemala’s population, suffered from food scarcity in 2023, the highest rate since records for the country started in 2018. Additionally, 44 percent Guatemalan children are outside of the normal height-for-age range, which is also attributed to food scarcity. This rate is the highest in Latin America according to UNICEF data, and is more than twice that of Ecuador, the Dry Corridor’s second highest. Only seven other countries in the world have higher stunting levels than Guatemala. Nearly 127 deaths among children were linked to hunger this year.
During a speech on October 18th, President of Honduras Xiomara Castro recently advocated for intensive change in the country’s food and agriculture system to combat hunger, citing drought and lack of prioritization of social infrastructure as a factor. “My unalterable determination is in favor of children and the universal rights to food, education, and health,” she stated. The President also mentioned the development of the national school feeding project in Honduras, which would cover 95 percent of the students in the nation’s public system. “The national school feeding program has also been developed under a community approach that includes the participation of families, teachers, municipalities, and the linking of local purchases to fully integrate in the shortest time possible, peasant family farming,” she continued.

NOTE ON ADM0INISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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