Europe: Deficits persist in E Europe, Balkans

27 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates intense deficits to occur in the Balkans, continuing north throughout most eastern European countries into portions of the Baltics. Much of southern Norway, Finland, and Ireland can expect intense surplus.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of June 2024.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

South-central Norway, throughout the county of Viken, as well as in neighboring areas.
Ireland, widespread throughout the country.
Finland, within the Kainuu Region.
Greece, in the Central Greece Region.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the following areas:

Western Ukraine, with extreme to exceptional deficits occurring throughout the Rivne Oblast, which continue north, downgrading into moderate to severe deficits, spreading into the majority of Belarus and eastern regions of the Baltics.
Northeastern Poland, with extreme to exceptional deficits near the city of Olsztyn.
Throughout the majority of Moldova, southeastern Bulgaria, and eastern Romania.
Northern Norway, with severe to extreme deficits occurring in the northern regions of the county of Nordland.
Czech Republic, with moderate to severe deficits occurring in western regions, continuing into southeastern Germany, northeastern France, and into Spain in areas near Barcelona and Gibraltar.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates severe to extreme deficits to linger throughout most eastern regions of the Baltics, which continue south into Belarus, western Ukraine, northeastern Poland, and northern Romania. Similarly intense deficits are anticipated in Slovakia and northern Hungary. Central Bosnia can also expect extreme deficits. Central Spain, eastern Germany, and central Italy are forecast to experience moderate to severe deficits. Further north, deficits in northern Norway are expected to dissipate, instead becoming near-normal conditions. Much of southern Norway, central Sweden, and the majority of Finland can expect moderate to severe surpluses to occur. Most of Ireland can expect similarly intense surpluses.

From January through March 2024, widespread moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur throughout Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Intense surpluses in Ireland are expected to diminish, becoming mostly moderate surpluses in western regions. In Continental Europe, mostly moderate deficits are expected to cover eastern Germany, much of Poland, Belarus, western Ukraine, and western Czech Republic. Switzerland and areas of eastern Slovakia can expect mild to moderate surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – anticipates most of Europe to experience near-normal conditions, though mostly moderate deficits are expected to linger in western Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland. Areas along the shared border of Ukraine and Belarus may experience severe to extreme deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Southern Spain is expected to endure another year of below average production of olive oil as the country enters its second consecutive year of drought. As the world’s top olive oil producer, Spain usually supplies about 40% of global output, but heat waves scorched the region’s olive trees, reducing crop yields. Olive oil production in Spain is expected to reach 765,300 metric tons in the upcoming harvest, an increase from 663,000 tons from last year’s harvest when output was halved. In Spain’s Andalusia region, where about 70% of Spain's olive oil is typically produced, harvests are expected to yield 40% below average.

On October 19th, hundreds of citizens were evacuated from homes and schools in Scotland due to heavy rain and gale-force winds. The highest level of weather warning was issued for parts of Scotland for extensive flooding and “danger to life from fast-flowing or deep floodwater.” The last red alert in the United Kingdom was issued in 2020. In the town of Brechin, near Scotland's eastern coast, officials ordered the evacuation of nearly 400 houses. Schools, recreation centers, and vaccination centers in the area were also closed.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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