Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense deficits throughout S Mexico, Central America

24 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in March 2024 anticipates intense deficits in concentrated areas of Mexico and Central America, with deficits of lesser intensity covering much of the remaining regions. Most areas in the Caribbean will experience a mixture of normal conditions and mild deficits, though Haiti may experience severe to extreme deficits.

The following areas are expected to experience extreme to exceptional deficits:

Southeast Mexico, spread through the states of Yucatan and Campeche.
South-central Mexico, appearing in pockets near Mexico City.
Central Guatemala, continuing into southern to central Belize.
Western Honduras, covering the Atlantida, Copan, Cortes, and Santa Barbara departments.
Northern and southern Nicaragua, appearing in northernmost regions of the North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region and in areas near Lake Cocibolca. These deficits continue into northern Costa Rica.

Severe deficits are expected to appear in the following areas:

Northern Belize, appearing near Belize City and moving north into the Corozal District.
Haiti, in coastal regions of the Ouest and Nippes departments.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 expects intense deficits to continue in pockets throughout central and southern Mexico, with concentrated anomalies occurring in areas surrounding the city of Puebla, stretching both north and westward. Exceptional deficits will continue in central to northern Guatemala, and in northwestern Honduras. Isolated deficits of similar intensity are expected to appear in El Salvador and Belize, as well as in central to southern Nicuaragua and northern Costa Rica.

From October through December 2023, most intense anomalies in Mexico are expected to diminish. Anomalies in Central America are also expected to disappear, with the exception of extreme deficits persisting in north-central Honduras, near the city of Tocoa in the Colón department. Some moderate to severe deficits may continue throughout Belize and central Guatemala.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – forecasts exceptional deficits to reemerge near Mexico City, continuing southeast in pockets across the state of Chiapas into El Salvador and western Nicaragua. Much of the remaining regions in Central America can anticipate widespread moderate deficits, with some severe deficits along Nicuaragua’s eastern coast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to a recent report, 65 percent of the state of Chiapas is affected by drought. From January to June of this year, rainfall is 36 percent below average. Additionally, Yendi Alvarez Chacon, head of hydrometeorology at the National Water Commission, reported that rainfall is at 75 percent below the monthly average in June. This drought causes issues for Indigenous communities of Chiapas, which are experiencing drought-related agricultural problems. As of late June, Guadalupe Xu’kun, a Tzotzil Maya community in the Zinacantan municipality, has gone several days without access to the amount of water needed for people’s daily consumption and farming. The drought and intense heat has also caused their plants to burn. Drought is currently widespread in Mexico, with reports of two-thirds of the country’s regions being affected.

Similarly, Tijuana is facing a water crisis, exacerbated by inefficient infrastructure and lack of governmental support for water resources. Due to Tijuana getting its water supply from the Colorado River, and being among the last cities downstream, access to water has become an expensive struggle. The only source of water for some communities is supplied from water trucks, which collect water from distant reservoirs in order to bring back to communities. Water from these trucks are typically much more expensive than what people connected to the city have to pay. Workers report having to travel farther and farther each trip, citing widespread drought and population growth as the source of the problem.

Mexico’s widespread drought, along with diminishing water levels of the Colorado River, have led to a shortage of red jalapenos, which are used to make hot sauce in both the United States and Canada. Supply disruptions of red jalapenos have been reported for a year as of July 2023, and while Canadian hot sauce makers estimate it will persist for at least another month, reports state that the United States’ supply has worsened in the previous few months.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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