Canada: Widespread deficits to continue across most provinces

24 July 2023

The 12-month forecast ending in March 2024 anticipates widespread deficits of varying intensity throughout much of the provinces, with some intense surpluses appearing in northwestern regions of the country.

Exceptional deficits are forecast in the following areas:

Central to northern British Columbia, in areas south and northeast of Williston Lake. These anomalies expand across the province’s northern and eastern border into northwestern Alberta and southeastern Yukon.
Northwestern Territories, within the Fort Smith Region in areas north of the Great Slave Lake, continuing east into central regions of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot Region.
Ontario, throughout much of the Unorganized Kenora District, into west-central coastal regions of Quebec bordering the Hudson Bay.
Central Nova Scotia, throughout the Municipality of the District of Guysborough, Pictou County, and Antigonish County.

Severe to extreme deficits are forecast in:

Saskatchewan, throughout most of the province.
Manitoba, in areas surrounding Lake Winnipeg.
Northern and northeastern Quebec, across the Rivière-Koksoak and Caniapiscau Regional County Municipality, and into coastal regions of Newfoundland and Labrador near the Blanc-Sablon community and near the Labrador Inuit Lands.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in:

Central Yukon, in areas surrounding Dawson City.
Central Nunavut, in sparse pockets throughout the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 expects exceptional deficits to continue throughout much of the country, with deficits lingering in northwestern Alberta, Nunavut, and Saskatchewan. Extreme to exceptional deficits in Quebec are expected to expand, covering most regions of northern to central Quebec. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to persist in central Yukon.

From October through December 2023, most intense anomalies are expected to significantly lessen in severity or disappear altogether. However, some deficits in northwestern Alberta, Nunavut, central Manitoba, northeastern Quebec, and Saskatchewan are expected to continue.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – expects deficits to continue in northern Alberta, Nunavut, central Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As western and southwestern Saskatchewan experiences continued lack of rain and warm temperatures, agricultural officials have begun asking for federal assistance to help livestock producers. On July 18th, Provincial Agriculture Minister David Marit requested assistance from federal Minister of Agriculture Marie-Claude Bibeau to consider an assessment to evaluate impacts of the drought and to implement initiatives, including relief money. "Even some of the pastures are starting to brown up and there are concerns about how long they will be able to carry the livestock that's in there," Marit said the following day. "This is a very stressful time."

This month, nearly 600 wildfires spread throughout Canada. Beginning on July 13, the fires prompted Environment Canada to issue air quality warnings for several communities in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Northwest Territories. As of July 13, scientists observed 90 smoke-infused storm clouds in Canada, and 104 worldwide. The number of smoke-infused storm clouds broke the previous records set in 2021, of which were 50 for Canada and 100 worldwide. Over 3 million acres had burned in British Columbia, which is roughly 30 times the average for July.

Paul McLauchlin, the president of the Rural Municipalities of Alberta, recently stated concern over the current conditions of the drought-stricken province, which is putting its agricultural industry in jeopardy. This year, multiple municipalities have declared agricultural disasters, including the counties of Stettler, Paintearth, Vulcan, Foothills, Cypress, and Wheatland. These declarations follow devastating drought conditions from two years ago, when multiple provincial municipalities similarly declared agricultural disasters. "We're definitely into a trend," McLauchlin said. "I think that we need to start looking for conversations around efficiency in our use of agricultural disasters, what type of mitigation we can have. "Coming into a hotter and drier future, we've got to start having bigger discussions on how we can mitigate this for the long run."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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